Premier League Cheat Sheet: A tip for every match this weekend

Jurgen Klopp.
Jurgen Klopp has not found Old Trafford to be a happy hunting ground.

Dan Fitch can't understand why Liverpool are favourites at Manchester United, as he uses Opta stats to bring you a tip for every Premier League game this weekend...

“Liverpool boss Jürgen Klopp has managed away at Man Utd without ever winning more times than any other opponent in his managerial career (6 – D4 L2).”

Given the respective form of the teams, it seems strange that Liverpool are favourites. Back Manchester United in the Draw No Bet market at 2.26/5.

Foxes will take another step towards top four spot

Southampton 3.711/4 v Leicester 2.111/10; The Draw 3.953/1
Friday 30 April, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Southampton have lost twice to Leicester already this season, 0-2 in the league and 0-1 in the FA Cup."

With Leicester honing in on a qualification place for next season's Champions League, the visitors look good value at 2.111/10.

Leaky City will win

Crystal Palace 11.010/1 v Manchester City 1.374/11; The Draw 5.39/2
Saturday 1 May, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

"Man City have conceded the first goal in each of their last two Premier League games, more than they had in their previous 23 in the competition (1). They last conceded first in three consecutive league games back in November 2019, coming back to win two of those (L1)."

Palace have scored in each of their last five games and you can back an away win and both teams to score at 3.39/4.

Draw would suit hosts

Brighton 2.3411/8 v Leeds 3.412/5; The Draw 3.613/5
Saturday 1 May, 15:00
Live on Amazon Prime

"Brighton have drawn more Premier League games than any other side this season (13), with only the current bottom three (5 each) winning fewer games than the Seagulls this term (7)."

In the context of their battle for survival, a point could prove valuable for Brighton, who are 3.613/5 to draw again.

Chelsea will win vital derby

Chelsea 1.491/2 v Fulham 8.415/2; The Draw 4.67/2
Saturday 1 May, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Chelsea keeper Édouard Mendy has kept 15 clean sheets in his 27 Premier League games this season, with only Ederson keeping more (17). Of all keepers to have started at least 25 games in Premier League history, Mendy is the only one to keep a clean sheet in more than half of them (56%)."

When Chelsea win, more often than not they don't concede. Back Chelsea to win to nil at 2.35/4.

Everton have poor home record

Everton 2.0621/20 v Aston Villa 3.953/1; The Draw 3.814/5
Saturday 1 May, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1

"Everton have won just one of their last nine home league games (D3 L5), with that victory coming against Southampton in March (1-0)."

You can back Aston Villa to become the latest team to avoid defeat at Goodison Park at odds of 1.910/11.

Magpies picking up points

Newcastle 4.1 v Arsenal 2.021/1; The Draw 3.814/5
Sunday 2 May, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Newcastle have lost just one of their last eight Premier League games (W2 D5), having lost eight of their 10 league matches prior to this run (W2)."

This is another match in which the underdogs could avoid defeat, with Newcastle available at 1.9520/21 in the Double Chance market.

Odds don't reflect form

Manchester United 2.9215/8 v Liverpool 2.486/4; The Draw 3.711/4
Sunday 2 May, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Liverpool boss Jürgen Klopp has managed away at Man Utd without ever winning more times than any other opponent in his managerial career (6 - D4 L2)."

Given the respective form of the teams, it seems strange that Liverpool are favourites. Back Manchester United in the Draw No Bet market at 2.26/5.

Home win for Spurs

Tottenham 1.3130/100 v Sheffield United 12.011/1; The Draw 6.25/1
Sunday 2 May, 19:15
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Tottenham are looking to complete their first league double over Sheffield United since the 1975-76 campaign, following their 3-1 win at Bramall Lane earlier this season."

Despite having had a poor season, Spurs have most often beaten the teams that you would expect them to and can be backed at 2.01/1 to win half-time/full-time.

Big Sam has tightened up Baggies

West Brom 2.915/8 v Wolves 2.6813/8; The Draw 3.39/4
Monday 3 May, 18:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"In their first five Premier League home games under Sam Allardyce, West Brom conceded 19 goals at an average of 3.8 per game. Since then, they've conceded just twice in their subsequent five home league games (0.4 per game) and are looking to keep three consecutive home clean sheets in the top-flight for the first time since March 2015."

With Wolves hardly being prolific scorers, under 2.5 goals looks a safe bet at 1.728/11.

Goals will flow

Burnley 3.39/4 v West Ham 2.3211/8; The Draw 3.613/5
Monday 3 May, 20:15
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Coming into this weekend's games, only Manchester City (30) have scored in more different Premier League matches than West Ham this season (27). Meanwhile, West Ham have both scored and conceded in 19 Premier League games this term, a joint-high with Manchester United and Newcastle United."

Burnley scored four goals last weekend and both teams to score can be backed at 1.84/5.

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Dan Fitch 2020/21 Season P/L

Staked: 442.00 pts
Returned: 451.85 pts
P/L: +9.85 pts

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