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European Football Tips: Six value wagers from the weekend fixtures

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Every weekend Walter Toner scours the major football leagues looking for value bets using his Performance Index algorithm. Here is his compilation of this weekend's most compelling wagers...


"With Palace showing the poorest home form in the EPL, Watford looks very enticing at these odds."

Recommendation: Back Watford above fair value

England Premier-League
Crystal Palace v Watford
Saturday, March 18, 2017


Betfair Back Odds - Home [1.97] Draw [3.55] Away [4.6]
Betfair Lay Odds - Home [1.98] Draw [3.6] Away [4.7]
Fair Value Odds - Home [2.28] Draw [3.55] Away [3.7]

Watford scores a 8 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.24 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.6. Offering now at 0.87 of FV, punters might consider laying Crystal Palace. Palace has shown the poorest home form in the EPL, take Watford at very enticing odds.

Recommendation: Back Watford above fair value


Germany Bundesliga
Fc Augsburg v Sc Freiburg
Saturday, March 18, 2017


Betfair Back Odds - Home [2.48] Draw [3.35] Away [3.2]
Fair Value Odds - Home [2.40] Draw [3.45] Away [3.4]

Fc Augsburg scores a 6 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.03 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.13. Fairly evenly matched squads with the numbers favoring the home side.

Recommendation: Back Fc Augsburg above fair value


England Premier-League
West Ham v Leicester
Saturday, March 18, 2017


Betfair Back Odds - Home [2.34] Draw [3.5] Away [3.4]
Betfair Lay Odds - Home [2.38] Draw [3.55] Away [3.45]
Fair Value Odds - Home [2.08] Draw [3.65] Away [4.1]

West Ham scores a 11 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.13 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.14. Offering now at 0.83 of FV, punters might consider laying Leicester. Leicester's road form is terrible. Home price is adequate for Hammers.

Recommendation: a href="https://btfr.co/130138964" target="_blank"> Back West Ham above fair value


Germany Bundesliga
SV Werder Bremen v RB Leipzig
Saturday, March 18, 2017


Betfair Back Odds - Home [3.7] Draw [3.6] Away [2.08]
Fair Value Odds - Home [4.00] Draw [3.8] Away [2.04]

RB Leipzig scores a 4 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.01 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.08. This should be a comfortable game for Red Bull.

Recommendation: Back RB Leipzig above fair value


Turkey Super Lig
Trabzonspor v Galatasaray
Saturday, March 18, 2017


Betfair Back Odds - Home [2.44] Draw [3.45] Away [3.05]
Betfair Lay Odds - Home [2.48] Draw [3.85] Away [3.35]
Fair Value Odds - Home [2.98] Draw [3.5] Away [2.64]

Galatasaray scores a 10 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.15 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.45. Offering now at 0.82 of FV, punters might consider laying Trabzonspor. Although adjacent in the Super Lig table, overall goal difference for Galatasaray +20, Trabzonspor +2. Take the visitors at attractive odds.

Recommendation: Back Galatasaray above fair value


Spain Primera-Division
Dep. La Coruna v Celta Vigo
Sunday, March 19, 2017


Betfair Back Odds - Home [2.22] Draw [3.3] Away [3.6]
Betfair Lay Odds - Home [2.3] Draw [3.6] Away [3.9]
Fair Value Odds - Home [2.48] Draw [3.45] Away [3.3]

Celta Vigo scores a 9 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.09 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.2. Offering now at 0.9 of FV, punters might consider laying Dep. La Coruna. Odds favor the visitors in this lower table match of relative equals.

Recommendation: Back Celta Vigo above fair value



2016/17 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 123pts
Returned: 144.9pts
P/L: +21.9pts

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