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European Football Tips: Watford and Barnsley both max out our scoring system

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Every weekend Walter Toner scours the major football leagues looking for value bets using his Performance Index algorithm. Here is his compilation of this weekend's most compelling wagers...


"Barnsley moves up a bit on the good road form and is attractively valued in this match."

Recommendation: Back Barnsley above fair value

Germany 2-Bundesliga
Dusseldorf v St. Pauli
Friday, April 21, 2017


Betfair Back Odds - Home [2.32] Draw [3.4] Away [3.4]
Betfair Lay Odds - Home [2.44] Draw [3.65] Away [3.45]
Fair Value Odds - Home [2.7] Draw [3.35] Away [3.00]

St. Pauli scores a 6 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.13 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.25. Offering now at 0.86 of FV, punters might consider laying Dusseldorf. Undefeated in 4 of last 5, St. Pauli looks a bit sharper than Dusseldorf winless in last 4.

Recommendation: Back St. Pauli above fair value


England Premier-League
Bournemouth v Middlesbrough
Saturday, April 22, 2017


Betfair Back Odds - Home [1.91] Draw [3.85] Away [4.6]
Betfair Lay Odds - Home [1.92] Draw [3.9] Away [4.7]
Fair Value Odds - Home [2.14] Draw [3.60] Away [3.90]

Middlesborough scores a 7 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.17 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.4. Offering now at 0.89 of FV, punters might consider laying Bournemouth. Weakest offense v the weakest defense, we side with a desperate Middlesborough.

Recommendation: Back Middlesbrough above fair value


England Premier-League
Hull City v Watford
Saturday, April 22, 2017


Betfair Back Odds - Home [1.93] Draw [3.8] Away [4.4]
Fair Value Odds - Home [2.14] Draw [3.6] Away [3.95]

Watford scores a 10 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.11 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.4. Watford, still lingering in the top half of the table, looks credible in this one.

Recommendation: Back Watford above fair value


England Championship
Bristol City v Barnsley
Saturday, April 22, 2017


Betfair Back Odds - Home [1.74] Draw [4.2] Away [4.9]
Fair Value Odds - Home [1.86] Draw [4.2] Away [4.50]

Barnsley scores a 10 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.08 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.57. Barnsley moves up a bit on the road and is attractively valued in this match.

Recommendation: Back Barnsley above fair value


England Championship
Sheffield Wed v Derby
Saturday, April 22, 2017


Betfair Back Odds - Home [1.84] Draw [3.7] Away [4.8]
Betfair Lay Odds - Home [1.86] Draw [4] Away [5.2]
Fair Value Odds - Home [2.26] Draw [3.55] Away [3.65]

Derby scores a 9 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.32 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.6. Offering now at 0.81 of FV, punters might consider laying Sheffield Wed. Wednesday is a slightly better squad but Derby is way under bet.

Recommendation: Back Derby above fair value


England Championship
Wigan v Cardiff
Saturday, April 22, 2017


Betfair Back Odds - Home [2.22] Draw [3.45] Away [3.55]
Betfair Lay Odds - Home [2.32] Draw [3.7] Away [3.7]
Fair Value Odds - Home [2.56] Draw [3.45] Away [3.15]

Cardiff scores a 7 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.13 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.55. Offering now at 0.87 of FV, punters might consider laying Wigan. As glory days are now in the rear view mirror, Wigan looks relegation bound.

Recommendation: Back Cardiff above fair value


Spain Primera-Division
Celta Vigo v Betis
Sunday, April 23, 2017


Betfair Back Odds - Home [2.04] Draw [3.55] Away [3.85]
Fair Value Odds - Home [2.08] Draw [3.65] Away [4.10]

Celta Vigo scores a 8 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 0.98 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.04. Celta Vigo remains undervalued in our methodology. Nice chance here. Betis has been outscored 32-15 on the road. Celta Vigo is available currently under our fair value.

Recommendation: Back Celta Vigo above fair value


England Premier-League
Liverpool v Crystal Palace
Sunday, April 23, 2017


Betfair Back Odds - Home [1.52] Draw [4.7] Away [7.2]
Betfair Lay Odds - Home [1.53] Draw [4.8] Away [7.6]
Fair Value Odds - Home [1.42] Draw [5.2] Away [9.80]

Liverpool scores a 8 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.07 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.02. Offering now at 0.74 of FV, punters might consider laying Crystal Palace. Liverpool has outscored opponents 41-16 at Anfield.

Recommendation: Back Liverpool above fair value


Italy Serie-A
Sampdoria v Crotone
Sunday, April 23, 2017


Betfair Back Odds - Home [1.97] Draw [3.8] Away [4.2]
Fair Value Odds - Home [1.93] Draw [3.90] Away [4.4]

Sampdoria scores a 9 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.02 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.12. Sampdoria has been in relatively solid form in last 10 games.

Recommendation: Back Sampdoria above fair value


2016/17 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 151pts
Returned: 164.2pts
Profit: +13.2pts

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