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European Football Tips: Atalanta visits Empoli on penultimate Italian weekend.

Will La Dea "The Goddess" stand victorious?
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Every weekend Walter Toner scours the major football leagues looking for value bets using his Performance Index algorithm. Here is his compilation of this weekend's most compelling wagers...


"With Empoli dangling over the relegation abyss, powerful Atalanta looms a likely winner."

Recommendation: Back Atalanta above fair value

Spain Primera-Division
Granada CF v Espanyol
Friday, May 19, 2017


Betfair Back Odds - Home [4.7] Draw [4] Away [1.83]
Fair Value Odds - Home [4.4] Draw [3.9] Away [1.95]

Granada CF scores a 7 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.07 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.6. Granada has a shot here in its LaLiga swan song.

Recommendation: Back Granada CF above fair value


Spain Primera-Division
Gijon v Betis
Saturday, May 20, 2017


Betfair Back Odds - Home [2.48] Draw [3.5] Away [2.96]
Betfair Lay Odds - Home [2.6] Draw [3.75] Away [3.15]
Fair Value Odds - Home [1.94] Draw [3.8] Away [4.6]

Gijon scores a 8 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.28 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.08. Offering now at 0.65 of FV, punters might consider laying Betis. Gijon has not technically been eliminated.

Recommendation: Back Gijon above fair value


Germany Bundesliga
Hertha Berlin v Bayer Leverkusen
Saturday, May 20, 2017


Betfair Back Odds - Home [2.04] Draw [3.6] Away [4]
Betfair Lay Odds - Home [2.1] Draw [3.8] Away [4.1]
Fair Value Odds - Home [2.7] Draw [3.45] Away [2.94]

Bayer Leverkusen scores a 9 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.37 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.5. Offering now at 0.76 of FV, punters might consider laying Hertha Berlin.

Should be a well contested battle with Europe position on the line for Hertha.

Recommendation: Back Bayer Leverkusen above fair value


Germany Bundesliga
Ingolstadt v Schalke
Saturday, May 20, 2017


Betfair Back Odds - Home [2.7] Draw [3.65] Away [2.66]
Fair Value Odds - Home [2.98] Draw [3.70] Away [2.52]

Schalke scores a 5 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.05 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.16. Relegation bound Inglostadt is not likely to put up much of a fight.

Recommendation: Back Schalke above fair value


Italy Serie-A
Empoli v Atalanta
Sunday, May 21, 2017


Betfair Back Odds - Home [2.38] Draw [3.45] Away [3.2]
Betfair Lay Odds - Home [2.46] Draw [3.7] Away [3.3]
Fair Value Odds - Home [3.25] Draw [3.5] Away [2.46]

Atalanta scores a 10 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.3 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.15. Offering now at 0.73 of FV, punters might consider laying Empoli.

Empoli still in danger but Atalanta is far the better squad.

Recommendation: Back Atalanta above fair value
(best bet)


Italy Serie-A
Genoa v Torino
Sunday, May 21, 2017


Betfair Back Odds - Home [2] Draw [3.4] Away [4.2]
Betfair Lay Odds - Home [2.1] Draw [3.8] Away [4.6]
Fair Value Odds - Home [2.48] Draw [3.5] Away [3.2]

Torino scores a 10 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.31 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.55. Offering now at 0.81 of FV, punters might consider laying Genoa.

Genoa likely to stay in danger of relegation after dropping this to Torino.

Recommendation: Back Torino above fair value


2016/17 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 175 pts
Returned: 198.08 pts
P/L: +23.08 pts

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