We're heading to Brazil tonight, because Kev thinks he's found a winner from a game most people expect to be crushingly dull.
"Paysandu have seen four of their last six home games feature three goals or more, and they have one of the worst defensive records in the division."
Brazilian boredom may not be on the cards
Paysandu v CRB
Tuesday 09 October, 23:15
We were left a goal short in Zaragoza last night, with the hosts drawing 1-1 with Osasuna. An agonising 26 minutes passed with no further goals, but we'll dust ourselves down and head to Brazil. Paysandu are up against CRB in a Serie B relegation battle. Both teams are currently in the bottom four, but are only a point away from safety.
Six of Paysandu's seven wins this season have come at home, and they have been scoring plenty of goals at the Estadio Leonidas Sodre de Castro. They have scored eight times in their last four home matches, and four of their last six matches on home soil have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land.
While Paysandu have been a lot of fun at home, CRB have been a tough watch of late. None of their last six matches have featured more than two goals, and they haven't scored an away goal for three months.
With those statistics, you can understand why overs is trading at [2.86], but Paysandu's recent home form leads to me think it might be worth a swing at it. Paysandu have the second-worst defence in the division, so let's hope it springs a few leaks on Tuesday night.
Points Staked: 142
Points Returned: 152.56
P/L: +10.56 points
Back Over 2.5 Goals at [2.86]