Norwich v Man City: Floodgates to remain shut at Carrow Road

Manchester City personnel - Pep Guardiola and Sergio Aguero
Sergio Aguero has flourished under Pep Guardiola

Two of the Premier League entertainers meet at Carrow Road on Saturday evening, but Paul Robinson isn't expecting a glut of goals between Norwich and Manchester City.

Both of City's away games have had four or more goals this year, but in the previous campaign, 14 of their 19 on the road had three or less

Back Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.3411/8

Norwich v Man City
Saturday September 14, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports

Farke to show no fear

The Canaries have had some good performances on the pitch this season, but the fact remains that they have only won once, with their other three outings ending in defeat (they also lost in the cup at Crawley).

Admittedly, Daniel Farke's side have had to go to Anfield and also face Chelsea, but they were beaten 2-0 at West Ham prior to the international break, and their tactics are still questionable at this level.

You can't help but admire the way they play, but they have already conceded more goals than any other team this season (10 in four), and Manchester City have the most dangerous attack in the league (14 in four to date, and 201 over the course of the previous two campaigns).

The latest team news is that Hernandez, Klose and Trybull remain out, while Aaron, Hanley and Zimmermann are doubts. Teemu Pukki will of course lead the line, and he will be looking to add to his tally of five goals.

City on the charge

Despite trailing Liverpool by two points at the top of the Premier League, it's hard to argue that Manchester City haven't been the most impressive team this year.

Contentious VAR decisions against Tottenham cost them their 100% record, but even in that game they were dominant, and no team has looked even remotely close to beating them.

This is their final fixture before the Champions League starts, so in theory they could start to become a touch more vulnerable, but their squad is just so stocked with talent, it's hard to see them slipping up against anyone at present.

Aymeric Laporte will be missing from the City squad for the foreseeable future, as he suffered a serious injury in the 4-0 win over Brighton. It will be interesting to see how Guardiola changes his defence, but Nicolas Otamendi will likely be the replacement in the short term.

Little appeal in the match odds

The visitors are the hot favourites for this game, but 1.171/6 for a City win isn't a price I want to be backing. They should of course take the three points, but £10 to make a £1.70 profit isn't the kind of bet I am interested in.

Norwich have already faced a top side on home soil this season, and while they only narrowly lost out to Chelsea in a five-goal thriller, the truth is that the Blues thoroughly outplayed them that day.

That is why I can't even consider the draw at 9.89/1 or the home win at a whopping 21.020/1. Those kind of odds do jump off the page at you, but then you remember how good City have been, and it becomes a no bet market for me.

Put your faith in the defence

Given that we have the best attack versus the worst defence, it comes as no surprise that Over 2.5 Goals is trading at around the 1.282/7 mark on the Betfair Exchange.

It is a bet that would have landed in all four of City's outings this season, with three of Norwich's four following suit. The Canaries themselves, know where the goal is too, as they are averaging 1.5 goals per match - including one against Liverpool.

It is not often that Under 2.5 is as big as 4.47/2 in the Premier League, and while I am sorely tempted to back it purely for that reason, I am going to play it slightly safer.

Under 3.5 Goals at 2.3411/8 is going to be my selection, even if I am relying on stats from last season. Both of City's away games have had four or more goals this year, but in the previous campaign, 14 of their 19 on the road had three or less, and with Laporte injured, Guardiola might instruct his players to be a bit more defensively aware.

Of course, the reigning champions are more than capable of scoring four goals themselves, but at odds-against, that's a risk I am willing to take.

Same Game Multi

Opta tells us that Man City's Sergio Agüero has been involved in eight goals in his five Premier League starts against Norwich, scoring five and assisting a further three.

On the Betfair Sportsbook, it is 17.51 for him to score first, Under 3.5 Goals in the match and Norwich +5 on the Corner handicap. Given that the hosts won't be afraid of attacking, I think that the corner count will be closer than what the odds reflect.

2019/20 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 17pts
Returned: 16.13pts
P/L: -0.87pts

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