Windsor Park is the venue for Northern Ireland against Switzerland on Wednesday and Paul Robinson is expecting this World Cup Qualifier to end all square.
All things being equal, the Swiss are the better side, but the hosts finally have some momentum under Baraclough, and they have home advantage too.
Northern Ireland v Switzerland
Wednesday 8 September, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports
Things looking better for Baraclough
Ian Baraclough rung the changes as expected for the friendly with Estonia on Sunday, so he will be pleased that his team managed to get the win and not lose any momentum.
After three matches in Group C, they sit in fourth place with four points, and while they have games in hand over Bulgaria and Italy, the reality is that if they want to finish as runners-up, they need to be beating Switzerland here.
Despite the victory in Estonia, it is expected that Baraclough will revert to the XI that won 4-1 in Lithuania, which means that Sunday scorer, Shane Ferguson, will have to settle for a place on the bench.
Swiss on a roll
The Swiss are second in Group C, just four points behind Italy, with two games in hand. They picked up a really good point against the Italians on Saturday, keeping their hopes of topping the group alive.
Murat Yakin has taken over the Head Coach role from Vladimir Petković who departed after the Euros. He has made a good start with a 2-1 friendly victory over Greece, and the aforementioned draw with Italy.
It is expected that Yakin will make a couple of changes from Sunday's game, with Denis Zakaria and Remo Freuler likely to come in to the XI.
The Irish are the 6.05/1 outsiders on the Betfair Exchange, with Switzerland the odds-on favourites at 1.748/11. The draw is 3.55/2.
It's actually the draw that interests me, at the prices. All things being equal, the Swiss are the better side, but the hosts finally have some momentum under Baraclough, and they have home advantage too.
There is every chance too that Switzerland's exploits against Italy will have taken it out of them, whereas Northern Ireland had it a bit easier in Lithuania, before rotating their squad for the weekend friendly.
I don't see many goals in this game, but 1.645/8 for Under 2.5 doesn't overly tempt me. Norn are sure to try and keep this as tight as possible, and while the visitors can be dangerous, it's not like they are the likes of France or England.
Over 2.5 Goals is trading at around the 2.47/5 mark, which might appeal to some people who look at the recent scorelines of the two teams, but it's not for me, and this is a pretty high stakes game - which often results in a cagey affair.
For my Bet Builder, I am going to combine the Draw, Under 2.5 Goals and Half Time Draw. That comes in at 4.28, which is a bit better than just the Draw bet at 3.55/2.
2021/22 P/L (1pt each bet)
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