The price about Manchester City to win is obscenely short and Jamie Pacheco tells you how best to profit from it in this intriguing FA Cup tie...
"Placing a bet on the Newcastle +1.5 and +2.0 line would have paid out in each of the last four games between these two in Newcastle so let’s hope that becomes five."
Newcastle v Manchester City
Sunday June 28, 18:30
Live on BBC One
Newcastle ready to give FA Cup a go
Newcastle have surely done enough to ensure Premier League survival and that means they can have a proper go at this competition.
They had an excellent 3-0 win against Sheffield United but they then followed it up with a somewhat disappointing 1-1 draw at home to Aston Villa. They'll be more upset about the fact that they were 1-0 up with just seven minutes to go than the draw in itself.
They already know that they're without the suspended Nabil Bentaleb but may also be without both Longstaffs, Matty and Sean. But the biggest loss of all may be Matt Ritchie, who is touch and go to be fit for this. He's been superb since the resumption of football with a goal and an assist against Sheffield United and a good performance against Villa. Midfield enforcer Isaac Hayden may also miss out with injury.
Plenty for Guardiola to think about
The fact that Liverpool finally put them out of their misery may be the best thing that happened for City. They can forget about the league title entirely and it will only be a matter of time before they secure second spot, as well.
That means they can also take the FA Cup seriously and still have the Champions League to look forward to.
Pep Guardiola won't have liked what he saw as his experienced City side lost 2-1 at Chelsea against a young team. Fernandinho was sent off late on, which led to Willian's penalty, and misses out here. As does Sergio Aguero of course, who's unlikely to play again this season.
Gabriel Jesus may start in attack after being rested on Thursday but only Pep will know who he will field here with a few tired bodies in his ranks after playing three league games in quick succession.
Should the Citizens really be that price?
I think a quote of just [1.21] about City is hugely insulting to Newcastle, who are [16.0] to win and [8.2] to draw.
If this were in Manchester, even without any fans, fine. But Newcastle have more than held their own at home this season, an example of which is that they're unbeaten at home in their last seven across six league games and an FA Cup one. And it's not like City have found it easy here, either.
The last four games here between the two ended in two draws and a win-a-piece, so it's certainly not the head-to-head record that's making City the price they are.
I wouldn't put anyone off laying City at these odds but there's a bet I prefer even more.
Placing a bet on the Newcastle +1.5 and +2.0 line would have paid out in each of the last four games between these two in Newcastle so let's hope that becomes five.
Newcastle do have a few injury concerns but a least two of that quartet could make it and that's nothing compared to the loss of Aguero for City, who's by far their likeliest source of goals.
A reminder that with this bet you win (at [2.3]) if Newcastle win, draw or lose by just one goal. If they lose by two you lose half your stake. Should they lose by three or more then yes, your bet would be a loser.
Danny Rose has six bookings for the season and will have his work cut out against Riyad Mahrez or Raheem Sterling, most likely. 23/10 is decent about him getting another yellow in this match.
But with one more card than Rose for the campaign is Brazilian striker Joelington, who rates a 7/2 chance, so even better value in terms of price versus cards for the season.
But the real value here could be Kevin de Bruyne at a far bigger 13/2. The genial Belgian is no angel, picking up five bookings for the season, including one on Thursday. He's likely to play again in this one after being rested the match before last and rates a really solid bet.
Back Newcastle +1.5 and +2.0 @ [2.3]
Back Kevin de Bruyne to be booked @ 13/2