Top of the table, Napoli, take on Sassuolo in Serie A this evening and Paul Robinson thinks that those who tune in to BT Sport won't see too many goals.
"Sassuolo have only conceded 17 goals this term – a record only bettered by Juventus, Napoli and Inter."
Napoli v Sassuolo
Saturday January 16, 19:45 GMT
Live on BT Sport 1
To those who don't pay too much attention to Italian football, they will see these two names on the coupon and almost automatically tick a home win because they have heard of Napoli and never heard of Sassuolo.
The truth of the matter though is that while the hosts are the worthy favourites - and top of the league for good measure - the visitors are up in sixth place and won 1-0 at Inter Milan last weekend.
One thing that sticks out to me the most though is the price of over 2.5 goals. It is very short considering that Napoli's recent scorelines at Stadio San Paolo have been 2-1, 0-0, 2-1, 1-0 and 2-0. That's three out of five to go under and although they netted five times at Frosinone on Sunday, they face a much stronger defence here.
Sassuolo have only conceded 17 goals this term - a record only bettered by Juventus, Napoli and Inter. That has led to their matches averaging a mere 2.22 goals each time - the second lowest in the entire division.
Well over half of their matches have seen over 2.5 layers paid out and they have already kept four clean sheets on their travels this term.
This should be much closer than the odds suggest and I really don't expect too many goals. Which is why, with over 2.5 trading as low as 1.674/6, I have to make it my lay of the day.
Lay Over 2.5 goals in Napoli v Sassuolo @ 1.674/6
2015/16 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 135 pts
Returned: 127.32 pts
P/L: -7.68 pts