Midweek Premier League Tipsheet: Free-scoring Citizens to see off Toffees with ease

Man City have been excellent at the Etihad and should beat Everton comfortably on Wednesday night
Man City have been excellent at the Etihad and should beat Everton comfortably on Wednesday night

There's a full programme of Premier League football in midweek and our man Mike Norman has provided a brief preview, and a recommended wager, on all eight of the non-televised games...


"Man City have scored 37 goals in their last 10 home victories, which is an average of 3.7 per game. I believe they'll beat Everton, and they'll get two or three again, possibly even more."

Back Man City -1 to Win @ 2.47/5

Tuesday

Aston Villa 3.211/5 v Crystal Palace 2.568/5; The Draw 3.412/5

I've written the words 'must win' or 'last chance saloon' in every preview I've done of Aston Villa in the last six weeks so I won't be repeating them again.

Remi Garde's men won none of those games - in fact they haven't won in the league for five months - and they're as good as relegated for my money. That's not the boldest statement in the world given Villa are 11 points from safety and have the worst goal difference in the division, but I think you all get what I'm trying to say. They're not very good.

Palace are going great guns in the Premier League and have a very realistic chance of finishing in the top six this term.

Like a few teams in the division Alan Pardew's men are actually performing better on the road - 17 points accumulated away from home and just 14 won at Selhurst Park - so now that they're on their travels again, away to the worst side in the division, it's impossible to recommend anything other than a Palace victory.

Recommended Bet
Back Crystal Palace to Win @ 2.568/5


Bournemouth 2.1411/10 v West Ham 3.814/5; The Draw 3.65

A match between two clubs who were severely hampered by some long term injuries in the first half of the season, but to their credit have been performing above expectations.

The Hammers are sixth in the table, just four points off a Champions League slot, despite some very poor away form in recent weeks. Slaven Bilic's men haven't won away from home for nearly three months after starting the season in blistering form on their travels, and in recent weeks they've failed to beat out-of-form clubs Swansea and Aston Villa away from home.

This has to be a worry given that Bournemouth haven't lost at Dean Court since November. Eddie Howe's men have defeated Manchester United on home soil in that time, scored three past Everton, and held Crystal Palace, a team that I've already mentioned are excellent away from home.

The problem I have however is that I just don't believe The Cherries should be the price they are to beat a side sitting sixth in the table. And with West Ham having recorded three consecutive wins in all competitions it could be that they are back to the form they showed in the first few months of the season.

And if that's the case, then being able to back a Hammers side that has already won at Liverpool, Arsenal, and Man City at 3.814/5 to win at Bournemouth could be an absolute steal.

Recommended Bet
Back West Ham to Win @ 3.814/5


***


Wednesday

Chelsea 1.434/9 v West Brom 9.617/2; The Draw 5.04/1

Chelsea's 2-0 win over Scunthorpe in the FA Cup on Sunday was the second time I've had chance to watch the Premier League champions since Guus Hiddink took over, and on both occasions I've been massively underwhelmed.

A goalless draw at Old Trafford might look like an okay result on paper but they were outplayed on that day against a Manchester United who are really struggling themselves, and against Scunthorpe on Sunday I thought Chelsea were extremely poor despite fielding an almost full strength side at Stamford Bridge.

So I'm happy to take The Blues on here simply because their five-game unbeaten run suggests they are gathering some momentum and markets are starting to react in their favour again.

But for me, Hiddink's men are no 1.434/9 shots to beat West Brom.

The Baggies struggled in the cup themselves on Saturday, needing a late equaliser to salvage a 2-2 draw at home to Bristol City, but they'll be back to full strength on Wednesday night and Tony Pulis certainly knows how to set a side up to frustrate an opponent. In addition, West Brom have won back-to-back league games so confidence will be high, and I believe a lay of Chelsea here is well worth a risk.

Recommended Bet
Lay Chelsea to Win @ 1.444/9


Man City 1.558/15 v Everton 6.86/1; The Draw 4.84/1

The statistic I keep reiterating regarding Everton is that the only league victories they've recorded since September were against Aston Villa, Sunderland, and Newcastle, the current bottom three in the Premier League.

In fact when you look at The Toffees' other league wins this term they all came against sides currently sitting 12th or lower, so they are yet to beat a top half side all season.

Everton have the advantage of having defeated Man City in the League Cup last week but this will be completely different I feel. Both sides recorded comfortable victories in the FA Cup on Saturday and they'll be relatively fresh for this midweek league outing.

Manuel Pellegrini's men have won five on the bounce at the Etihad Stadium, scoring 17 goals in the process, and prior to their surprise home loss to Liverpool they'd recorded a further five successive wins on home soil, scoring 20 goals in the process.

The maths are simple then. Man City have scored 37 goals in their last 10 home victories, which is an average of 3.7 per game. I believe they'll beat Everton, and they'll get two or three again, possibly even more. Back the home side to prevail with a -1 goal handicap.

Recommended Bet
Back Man City -1 to Win @ 2.47/5
(best bet)


Southampton 2.021/1 v Watford 4.47/2; The Draw 3.613/5

Southampton's poor form continued with a 1-2 home defeat to Crystal Palace in the FA Cup on Saturday, The Saints' eighth loss in their last 10 league and cup games, making their only victory in that time - a 4-0 thrashing of Premier League leaders Arsenal - even more baffling.

Since that win over the Gunners, Ronald Koeman's men have lost three on the spin and their season is in danger of becoming a huge disappointment event at this stage.

The Saints need to get back on track, and fast, but I'm not convinced they'll roll over Watford in midweek although, as the odds suggest, they are the most likely winners.

Instead I prefer to back the Yes option in the Both Teams to Score market. I can see Southampton getting on the scoresheet but in Watford they face a side that has been excellent of late, climbing to ninth in the table and who on Saturday scored for the 12th consecutive game in all competitions.

Recommended Bet
Back Both Teams to Score @ 2.111/10


Stoke 2.0811/10 v Norwich 4.3100/30; The Draw 3.55/2

Stoke have become slightly inconsistent of late, defeating the likes of Chelsea, Everton, Man Utd, and Man City, mixed in with defeats to West Brom, Crystal Palace, and a failure to beat an injury-hit West Ham.

Mark Hughes' men were a bit like this last season too, so much so that at one point I labelled them the most inconsistent team in the Premier League. There are a few contenders for that title at present!

In a nutshell, it's hard to predict which Stoke side will turn up these days. Those four victories mentioned above certainly suggest they raise their game when they play the better teams but struggle against the sides they are expected to beat. The outcome of this game may well prove that theory.

An in-form Stoke side really ought to get the better of this Norwich team for my liking, and I'll be wagering they do exactly that.

The Canaries have been more predictable than most sides this season in that they win when they are well fancied to win, against poor or out of form sides, but they struggle when they face a better side perhaps. Stoke are the better side in my opinion and a home win is the call.

Recommended Bet
Back Stoke to Win @ 2.0811/10


Swansea 1.84/5 v Sunderland 5.59/2; The Draw 3.711/4

With both these sides struggling at present this isn't a game that I want to get heavily involved in at all.

Swansea are fourth from bottom having won just one of their last 10 Premier League games, and on Sunday they were dumped out of the FA Cup by League Two outfit Oxford. Caretaker boss Alan Curtis admitted afterwards that the defeat was a huge setback and that there's a lot of hard work ahead.

Sunderland lost five on the spin in the league before getting the better of hapless Aston Villa 10 days ago, and manager Sam Allardyce is far from happy at having this game pushed back 24 hours with all the travelling his side has to do this week.

Still, this is a great opportunity for either Swansea to give themselves a bit of breathing space or for Sunderland to drag their opponents, and a few other clubs, right into a relegation battle. It's a classic six-pointer.

The market is firmly behind a dull game here with Under 2.5 Goals trading at just 1.748/11, but if both sides sense a victory this could develop into an open and entertaining affair. Four of Sunderland's last five games have witnessed at least four goals while Swansea have just lost 3-2. Let's take a flyer on Overs here.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.35/4


Tottenham 1.84/5 v Leicester 5.24/1; The Draw 4.03/1

I feel that Leicester are continuing to be disrespected in the markets, and although I fully agree that Tottenham are the most likely winners here it's hard to put them up at odds-on against the highflying Foxes.

The facts are that Leicester are above Spurs in the table and they've lost just once on the road since March 2015, a period which has seen them play away from home on 16 occasions. And they also go into this game on the back of a 2-2 draw at White Hart Lane in the cup on Sunday, where both managers fielded weakened teams.

Mauricio Pochettino is building a very exciting side at Tottenham and I'm confident they'll be good enough to finish in the top four this term. And they certainly seem to have eradicated those regular slip-ups - a defeat to Newcastle apart - which would usually cost them dear come the end of a season (in terms of qualifying for the Champions League at least).

But I feel Leicester will have to underperform here for Spurs to land to odds, and although that's a distinct possibility, especially with Claudio Ranieri unable to select the injured Jamie Vardy, I believe there's some worth in backing the Foxes to make it 17 away games with just that one defeat.

Recommended Bet
Back Draw or Away in Double Chance @ 2.245/4


***


*You can follow me on Twitter - @MikkyMo73


**For individual match previews of every single Premier League game visit our dedicated Premier League section here on Betting.Betfair.


Premier League 2015/16 Season P/L

Staked: 123 pts
Returned: 124.99 pts
P/L: +1.99 pts

*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet

**2014/15 P/L = +35.3 pts from 215 staked (ROI = 16.42%)

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