Man City v Everton: Toffees can make life tough for hosts

Carlo Ancelotti can make his mark at Man City
Carlo Ancelotti can make his mark at Man City

Manchester City host rejuvenated Everton and Dave Tindall is here to pick out the best bets at the Etihad on New Year's Day...

"Do the stats back it up? They certainly do - and then some - as Under 3.5 has landed in six of City's last seven home Premier League games. Add in Ancelotti's tactical acumen - his Napoli side conceded just once against Liverpool in 180 minutes - and there must be a very good chance that Under 3.5 is the outcome again."

2pts Under 3.5 Goals at 1.9620/21

Man City v Everton
Wednesday 1 January, 17:30
Live on BT Sport

City need huge second half

After points tallies of 98 and 100 over the last two seasons, Manchester City reached the halfway mark of this campaign on just 38.

Project that out and they'd end up with just 76.

Of course, despite the wobbles, no-one expects such a meagre haul from Pep Guardiola's men and they've opened Pt II of the season with three points thanks to a 2-0 win over Sheffield United.

While that would have seemed routine at the start of the season, City actually became the first team this season to score a home win over the gritty Blades.

The return of Sergio Aguero certainly helped - the Argentine marksmen got the opening goal - but just as noticeable was just City's second clean sheet in the last 15 games.

From here they probably need to win virtually every game to have any hope of reeling in Liverpool but this will be far from an easy task.

Ancelotti having immediate impact

After being roused by the temporary appointment of the charismatic Duncan Ferguson with a win and two draws, Everton's revival has moved up a notch.

While Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea are testing the waters with unproven managers, Everton have managed to snare one of the best of the last two decades in Italian Carlo Ancelotti.

And the man who has 20 trophies and three Champions Leagues to his name has already had an instant impact.

A late Dominic Calvert-Lewin header at home to Burnley made it a winning start for Ancelotti and a brace from the young striker secured a 2-1 victory at Newcastle, Everton dominating possession in both games.

It'll take different tactics this time but Ancelotti, before parting with Napoli, has already bagged a win and a draw against all-conquering Liverpool this season so Toffees fans will go into this one with genuine hope of taking something rather than fearing the worst.

City no sure things at home

Manchester City have lost at home to Wolves and Manchester United this season and been held by Spurs so it takes a leap of faith to back them at 1.292/7 against such a resurgent opponent.

Everton are 12.011/1 to take home all three points while The Draw is a fairly hefty 6.86/1.

The Toffees have a strong record at City. They won there four years in succession from 2007/8 to 2010/2011 and have drawn three of the last four.

With Ancelotti at the helm, they certainly look a spot of value to pinch a point again so that's the first play.

Negatives would be that City have the squad to cope better with the rush of fixtures while, with their league position stabled, there's a chance that Ancelotti will have half an eye on the weekend FA Cup showdown with Liverpool.

That said, confidence is high in the Everton camp and they have it in them to earn a draw.

City not justifying goal quotes

I'm tempted to back Under 2.5 goals here, just because 3.259/4 looks way too big. However, because of those odds, it means Under 3.5 should be around evens and that's the case, with 1.9620/21 available.

Do the stats back it up? They certainly do - and then some - as Under 3.5 has landed in six of City's last seven home Premier League games.

Add in Ancelotti's tactical acumen - his Napoli side conceded just once against Liverpool in 180 minutes - and there must be a very good chance that Unders is the outcome again.

Calvert-Lewin can net more profits

The usual suspects are the usual prices so the main point of interest is to scroll down the odds to see the price of Dominic Calvin-Lewin.

After three goals in Ancelotti's first two games and 10 overall this season, the No.9 is 43/1 to net another.

He scored against City at Goodison earlier this season and, at those odds, is value to keep his streak going.

Dave Tindall's P/L, 2019/20

Staked: 67pts
Returned: 74.02pts
P/L: +7.02pts

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