After laying Marseille at odds-on last night, Kev's taking on another short-priced Ligue 1 team tonight.
"Lille have only won twice at home since the turn of the year, and one of those victories was against rock-bottom Metz."
Lille v Dijon
Saturday 12 May, 20:00
Lille unlikely to make it three wins on the spin
It was a rollercoaster ride, but we got there in the end. Our boys Guingamp were 2-0 down inside 14 minutes against Marseille last night, but turned the match on its head as they ended up with a 3-3 draw.
We'll stay in Ligue 1, and check in with a Lille side looking for a third straight win as they bid to avoid a disastrous relegation. Tonight they are up against mid-table Dijon at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy, and I believe the hosts are too short to pick up maximum points.
Lille have struggled throughout the season, after the hiring of much-vaunted coach Marcelo Bielsa proved to be an unmitigated disaster. Former St Etienne boss Christophe Galtier took over in December, but he has struggled to repair the damage.
Although Lille have adopted a more attacking approach of late, I think the market has over-reacted to their wins against Metz and Toulouse. Metz are rock-bottom and have lost 22 of their 36 league games, while Toulouse are in the bottom three, and were 2-1 up going into the last ten minutes of that game.
Lille are [1.53], which seems way too short for a team that has won just twice at home since the turn of the year. Dijon may seem like mid-table patsies, but they were excellent in last weekend's 3-1 win over Guingamp, and they have only lost one of their last six away games in Ligue 1. They are playing without any pressure, and they stuffed Lille 3-0 in the reverse fixture.
Points Staked: 74
Points Returned: 78.08
P/L: +4.08 points
Lay Lille at [1.53]