League One Betting: Bolton defence to excel at Wimbledon

Alan Dudman
10 August 2016

Wimbledon boss Neal Ardley has urged his side to cut out sloppy errors

Join

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

Newly-promoted AFC Wimbledon entertain newly-relegated Bolton Wanderers this Saturday, and our League One man Alan Dudman previews one of the best games of the day, along with bets at Gillingham and Oldham....

"Parkinson's business in signing (and re-signing) Mark Beevers and David Wheater is just about the best piece of transfer work in the third tier. And both were outstanding against Sheffield United on Saturday - remarkably the Yorkshire club failed to have a single shot on target."

Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.9010/11 Wimbledon v Bolton Wanderers

Gillingham 2.1411/10 v Bury 3.7511/4, the draw 3.505/2

Southend fans will be pleased their team isn't facing Gillingham again on Saturday. By an odd (or cruel) twist of fate, the Gills beat the Essex club 3-1 last weekend for the opening set of League One fixtures, and lo and behold the two were drawn against each other in the EFL Cup on Tuesday - the scoreline was again 3-1. Make a note when the two lock horns again later in the campaign. Anyone for 3-1?

Deja vu aside, the Kent club looked a slightly different outfit in those two games to the one that finished off their season quite tamely a few months ago. It must be remembered that Justin Edinburgh's men were genuine promotion contenders at various times, and were at one stage the leading goalscorers in the third tier. Peterborough made a move briefly of course.

So the goals are flowing, and new signing Jay Emmanuel-Thomas (or JET) has provided real quality in attack. The 25-year-old will be a definite handful for defences at this level, especially considering he scored five in 15 at Loftus Road last season. Their opponents this weekend don't really have that quality up front.

Bury meanwhile defeated the second-favourites for the title Charlton on Saturday, with a solid and disciplined display. Shakers' boss David Flitcroft pulled off a nice tactical plan by pressing and denying their opponents the space. The Addicks' creative players in the middle were blunted.

What will they do in Kent? I say this, because Gillingham don't mind having less of the ball, as they enjoyed only 44 per cent possession against Southend, and lots of teams at this level play on the counter. It looks as though the hosts have the better attacking options, and certainly a more creative midfield - hopefully Bradley Dack will shake off a knock from Tuesday - he is a tremendous threat at this level.

Gillingham's new signing Paul Konchesky had a brilliant game at the weekend, and was responsible for better deliveries into the box, and also from corners. But in pure attacking terms, the hosts look a far more potent side.

OPTA STATS: The Gills are unbeaten in eight home league games against Bury (W4 D4), last losing to the Shakers on Boxing Day in 1992. Bury have failed to score more than one goal in each of their last 18 league matches away from home.

Recommended Bet (half point)

Back Gillingham draw no bet @ 1.8810/11

Oldham Athletic 3.505/2 v Walsall 2.486/4, the draw 3.4012/5

On Wednesday night, the markets are light in terms of liquidity. I nearly fell off my chair though when I saw Oldham at 1.422/5 in the blue box. Whoever has put up that price as a lay, your money is safe (as Les Dennis used to say on Family Fortunes). I'm not sure anyone will be taking that offer.

Just as Dennis was known as a one-dimensional impressionist with his 'Mavis' work, Walsall are one-dimensional with their passing game in 4-2-3-1 (and that's a good thing). They are also more convincing than the "I don't really know" line of work.

Walsall were one of the better sides last season, and they like possession of the ball. They dominated against AFC Wimbledon on Saturday; winning comfortably 3-1, with new signing Simeon Jackson looking very fit and sharp with a pair of goals. Personally, their capture of Flo Cuvelier is the one that pleases me most, a lovely footballer with a deft touch. I hope he does well back at the Banks's.

Saddlers' boss Jon Whitney has made ten signings, which is chicken-feed compared to the 18 currently through the doors at Oldham. When manager Stephen Robinson joined in the summer, he had just seven contracted players at the club.

Organisation is a big part of the game at this level, and it showed with the Latics on Saturday, who conceded from three set-pieces in the 3-0 loss at Millwall on the opening weekend.

This might be the best time for Walsall to visit Oldham, as their pitch isn't the best in the winter. The August surface should at least suit their style of play. We have the chance to back a good team at this level at odds-against, especially given their opponents this Saturday.

OPTA STATS: Four of Walsall's last encounters with the Latics have ended in victory, although only one of those came at Boundary Park. Oldham have failed to score in their last three league matches - shipping eight goals in the process.

Recommended Bet (half point)

Back Walsall draw no bet @ 1.9520/21

AFC Wimbledon 2.447/5 v Bolton Wanderers 3.02/1, the draw 3.44

Markets can react quickly, and often overreact. Take Saturday for example; Bolton were 15.50 for the League One title (and my ante-post tip for the season preview). Their 1-0 win against favourites Sheffield United immediately crashed the price to around 10.09/1, and now they have settled at 13.012/1.

The success against the Blades was a typical Phil Parkinson victory. He was known for keeping clean sheets at Bradford, and his sides are usually very well-drilled and organised. That's maybe just what Bolton need after last year?

Parkinson's business in signing (or re-signing) Mark Beevers and David Wheater is just about the best piece of transfer work in the third tier. And both were outstanding against Sheffield United on Saturday - remarkably the Yorkshire club failed to have a single shot on target. I read with interest Chris Wilder's comments, and thought he was having a little dig at the Bolton style. Wilder must have been frustrated at the long-throw routine that the Trotters continually wheeled out.

The visitors look a tempting price this weekend. For all the problems off the pitch, Bolton still have a strong team, and you feel the back four (especially the two centre-backs) will have absolutely no problem dealing with the Dons and their direct style which was evident at Walsall last weekend. Parkinson opted for a lone striker seven days ago, he might do the same again.

Neal Ardley's side were punished last Saturday for sloppy play, and they'll be meeting a quality opponent. Jake Reeves is a player I don't know too much about, but his delivery seems to be a big part of his game from what I can see. However, they need more in the final third, which is a worry against a side that were very dogged recently.

OPTA STATS: Bolton have won just one of their last 33 matches away from home, having lost their last eight in a row. This will be the first ever meeting between the two sides.

Recommended Bet (half point)

Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.9010/11

*You can read more League One tips as well as Ian Lamont's thoughts on the week's League Two action by visiting our dedicated English Football League section here on Betting.Betfair.

P and L

-0.57

Bet £10 On ACCAS or Bet Builders and Get a £2 Free Bet

Bet £10 on Accas, Multiples or Bet Builders, at minimum combined odds of 2.0 (evens) and once the qualifying bet(s) have settled, you'll get a £2 free bet. Free bet valid 48 hours on Accas, Multiples or Bet Builders. T&Cs apply.