Against All Odds: When in Rome

Mario Gomez is deadly on his day
Mario Gomez is deadly on his day

Two of Italian football's biggest names take each other on this evening and with Champions League places to play for, Paul Robinson is expecting the goals to flow.

"Under 2.5 goals is an odds-on shot and that surprises me given that Lazio’s matches are averaging 2.8 goals each time this year, with Fiorentina’s coming in only slightly lower at 2.44."

Lay Under 2.5 goals in Lazio v Fiorentina @ 1.9110/11

Lazio v Fiorentina
Monday March 9, 18:00 GMT
Live on BT Sport 2

A trio of Serie A wins on the bounce have pushed Lazio back up to fourth in the league and right in the mix for European football next season. A draw in the Copa Italia on Wednesday has halted their winning run but it was far from a terrible result and they will still be in confident mood ahead of the visit of Fiorentina.

The visitors are in fine form themselves as they also come into this fixture on the back of three straight wins. Theirs were in different competitions though as they beat Spurs 2-0 in the Europa League, Inter 1-0 in Serie A and then on Thursday they pulled off a shock 2-1 win at Juventus in the Coppa Italia.

As you can tell, both clubs will fancy their chances of picking up the three points tonight, but it's the amount of goals scored that interests me the most.

Under 2.5 goals is an odds-on shot and that surprises me given that Lazio's matches are averaging 2.8 goals each time this year, with Fiorentina's coming in only slightly lower at 2.44.

Of the 50 league matches that they have both been involved in, 27 have had at least three goals, with Stefano Pioli's side leading the way with 17. The White and Sky Blues have seen eight of their last 10 at Stadio Olimpico reward under 2.5 layers, while half a dozen of Viola's last nine on the road have followed suit.

There are plenty of reasons to think that we could be in for a few goals here, so with under 2.5 trading at around the 1.9110/11 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Lazio v Fiorentina @ 1.9110/11

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 66 pts
Returned: 53.15 pts
P/L: - 12.85 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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