La Liga Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW38

Roger Assalé Leganes
Leganes will hope Roger Assalé can add to his goal against Athletic Bilbao

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions for the final weekend of the season...

Leganes managed to stay alive with a win at 10-man Athletic, but if they want to stay up they'll need to do it the hard way by somehow finding a result against a Real Madrid side coming off 10 straight wins.

Alaves to lose to Barcelona after surviving relegation scare

Alaves v Barcelona
Sunday, 16:00
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Alaves secured their safety with a week to spare by winning at Betis, meaning they don't need to take anything from a Barcelona side looking to rebound from a shock defeat at home to Osasuna. Quique Setien's side have scored and conceded freely on the road this season, and while Infogol gives them a 56% chance of victory it might not be entirely straightforward.

Back the 1-2 @ [9.20]

Betis to round off season with away win

Real Valladolid v Real Betis
Sunday, 17:30
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Neither Valladolid or Betis have covered themselves in glory in recent weeks, with both dropping points against teams in the bottom half of the table, but the visitors can give incoming manager Manuel Pellegrini cause for optimism by ending the season with an away win. Valladolid's home games don't tend to produce many goals, with Sergio González's side netting just three times in their last six on home soil, and Betis have a narrow edge according to Infogol's model.

Back the 0-2 @ [17.00]

Villarreal to cling to fifth with home win

Villarreal v Eibar
Sunday, 17:30
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Three defeats in four have taken Villarreal out of Champions League contention, but two of those losses came against the top two. Javier Calleja's team should have more luck against Eibar, who have climbed to 13th after a mini unbeaten run but have averaged 1.58 xGA on the road and picked up two of their three away wins when fighting for their lives. The hosts are 54% to win this one, according to Infogol's model, while there's a reasonable chance of both sides finding the net.

Back the 2-1 @ [9.20]

Atleti to seal third-place finish with home win

Atletico Madrid v Real Sociedad
Sunday, 20:00
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Atletico Madrid have made light work of most of their opponents since the restart, and Diego Simeone's side should be able to get the better of a Real Sociedad side not yet assured of European football next season. Atleti have allowed just 0.76 xGA per home game this season, and Imanol Alguacil's visitors - who only average 1.22 xGF on the road - may well be left relying on results elsewhere.

Back the 2-0 @ [10.50]

Celta's collapse to continue at relegated Espanyol

Espanyol v Celta Vigo
Sunday, 20:00
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Celta Vigo have had countless opportunities to pull themselves out of the relegation mire, and a win at bottom-of-the-league Espanyol will still be enough to ensure they remain in La Liga next season, but the hosts haven't completely thrown in the towel performance-wise despite results going against them. Celta have conceded 1.69 xGA per game on the road, with actual goals corresponding closely to that total, and Espanyol can snap their recent scoreless streak to potentially take their opponents down with them.

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Back the 2-0 @ [40.00]

Granada to make European rivals sweat with home win

Granada v Athletic Bilbao
Sunday, 20:00
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Granada kept their Europa League hopes alive by relegating Mallorca on Thursday night, and should be comfortable against an Athletic side missing the suspended Unai Simon in goal. Infogol gives Diego Martinez's men a 50% chance of victory, with their average of just 1.09 xGA at home potentially coming down even further against the lowest scorers in the top half of the table.

Back the 2-0 @ [10.50]

Champions Real Madrid to end Leganes' top-flight stay

Leganes v Real Madrid
Sunday, 20:00
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Leganes managed to stay alive with a win at 10-man Athletic, but if they want to stay up they'll need to do it the hard way by somehow finding a result against a Real Madrid side coming off 10 straight wins. Javier Aguirre's side will have to hope Madrid ease off after securing the title on Thursday night, but Infogol's model still gives the visitors a 46% chance of success, with Leganes' season long average of 1.20 xGF at home giving a guide to their biggest challenge.

Back the 0-2 @ [14.00]

Getafe to clinch European return by beating Levante

Levante v Getafe
Sunday, 20:00
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Getafe's struggles in front of goal have already ended their top four hopes, and are in danger of leaving them without any European football next season. However, a victory at Levante would help the visitors - still in the 2019/20 Europa League - return to the competition. Infogol gives Getafe a narrow edge, and if they keep Levante top scorer Roger quiet they should be able to find a way past a defence which has been rather fortunate this season, conceding 11 fewer home goals than xG suggests they should have done.

Back the 0-2 @ [9.40]

Osasuna to follow up Barça shock by beating relegated Mallorca

Osasuna v Mallorca
Sunday, 20:00
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The reverberations of Osasuna's shock win at Camp Nou are still being felt, and Osasuna can ride the high of that win by taking three points against a Mallorca side confined to the Segunda by their defeat at home to Granada last time out. The hosts are 57% to win against a team averaging 2.22 xGA on the road and preparing for life in the second tier next season.

Back the 2-1 @ [9.20]

Sevilla to end Valencia's Europa hopes

Sevilla v Valencia
Sunday, 20:00
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Sevilla still have a slim chance of finshing third, though they'll be relying on Atletico Madrid dropping points even if they fulfil the 65% chance Infogol's model gives them of beating eighth-place Valencia. Julen Lopetegui's team have averaged 1.77 xGF across their last three home games, just shy of their season-long average of 1.80, and should be too strong for opponents without an away league win since December.

Back the 2-1 @ [9.40]

***

Just in time for the return of La Liga action, Infogol has improved its website and free app with; a cleaner look, More prominent xG features, Enhanced Form Guide and Over/Under % chance. Check them out at infogol.net

Tom Victor,

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