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La Liga Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW35

Tom Victor
07 July 2020

Mallorca will need top scorer Ante Budimir to deliver

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Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions for a week with implications at both ends of the table...

"Mallorca might have lost their last four on the road, including a miserable evening away to Atletico Madrid, but it's a different story at home."

Valencia to return to winning ways against Valladolid

Valencia v Real Valladolid
Tuesday, 18:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Valencia ended their losing streak in Granada last time out, sustaining an xG battering but finding two goals to escape with a point. They play host to a Valladolid side with just 0.89 xGF across their last two away games, and averaging less than a goal a game (both real and expected) across all away games this season. If Los Che can keep their opponents' attack quiet, their 44% chance of victory should become a reality.

Back the 2-0 @ 9.809/1

Atleti to stretch unbeaten run to 13 in Vigo

Celta Vigo v Atletico Madrid
Tuesday, 21:00
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Any worries about Atletico Madrid's Champions League return have been quickly put to bed, with Diego Simeone's side continuing their unbeaten form in the weeks since the restart. They're 45% to chalk up another win at Balaidos, where their opponents Celta posted just 0.18 xGF against Real Betis at the weekend, and with BTTS holding a sub-50% probability with Infogol's model, we could be set for a fifth clean sheet in the last seven games for Atleti.

Back the 0-2 @ 10.009/1

Getafe to squeak win against wounded Villarreal

Getafe v Villarreal
Wednesday, 19:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Sunday's defeat at home to Barcelona will have been a tough one for Villarreal, with their visitors looking like the Barça of old and putting away four goals including an Antoine Griezmann stunner. Getafe can hit them while they're down, benefitting from a return to the Coliseum after two scoreless (and relatively chance-less) away games. Infogol's model gives Jose Bordalas' men a 43% chance of taking all three points, with both teams tipped to get on the scoresheet.

Back the 2-1 @ 12.0011/1

Betis to make safety all but official with home win

Real Betis v Osasuna
Wednesday, 19:30
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With nine points separating them and the bottom three, Alexis Trujillo's Betis will want to make sure of their safety sooner rather than later and a home tie against Osasuna offers the perfect opportunity. Osasuna will provide a decent test, given their four-match unbeaten run, but the home side can build on a solid display at Celta Vigo by edging an affair where Infogol calculates a 58% chance of both sides netting.

Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1

Barcelona to survive derby to notch back-to-back wins

Barcelona v Espanyol
Wednesday, 21:00
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Barcelona's victory over Villarreal marked a return to form, and they can now avoid a repeat of the previous derby at Espanyol in which they conceded a late equaliser. That game saw Barça finish with 10 men, but a full compliment of 11 should be able to best an Espanyol side unable to shake its recent run of narrow, deserved defeats. The hosts are 71% to win with Infogol's model, but derbies are often much closer affairs than the table might suggest.

Back the 2-1 @ 12.50

Leganes to fall short in must-win game

Eibar v Leganes
Thursday, 18:30
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A narrow victory over Espanyol, with Leganes riding a 0.37 xGF return to three points, means Javier Aguirre's side can still cling to narrow hopes of survival. That largely rests on Thursday's trip to Eibar, where a win can put Leganes within four points of safety but defeat would surely spell the end. The hosts don't tend to give a lot away at Ipurua, allowing an average of 1.4 xGA per game at home this season, and José Luis Mendilibar's team are narrow favourites to win based on Infogol's model. The pressure of a six-pointer can always make things tense, though.

Back the 2-0 @ 12.50

Mallorca to snatch crucial win in survival fight

Mallorca v Levante
Thursday, 18:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Mallorca might have lost their last four on the road, including a miserable evening away to Atletico Madrid, but it's a different story at home. They're 42% to claim victory against a Levante side who concede an average of 2.1 xGA per away game. While it might be a little closer than the 5-1 win over Celta in Mallorca's last home game, Vicente Moreno's team should have enough to potentially close the gap to safety to just three points.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2

Sevilla to stretch unbeaten run to 12 with win in Bilbao

Athletic Bilbao v Sevilla
Thursday, 21:00
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Sevilla have been hard to beat of late, and while they may have ridden their luck a little in back-to-back wins over Eibar and Leganes, an xGA average away from home of just 1.2 paints a picture of a team who won't give you much to work with. Thursday's trip to San Mames should provide a chance for another three points, especially if Athletic are as generous as they were against Real Madrid on Sunday (2.7 xGA), with Infogol giving the visitors a 43% chance of victory.

Back the 0-2 @ 12.50

Real Sociedad to edge low-scoring battle at Anoeta

Real Sociedad v Granada
Friday, 18:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video

None of Real Sociedad's last six games have been exciting, end-to-end affairs. The highest combined xG of the two teams in any of those matches has been 2.60, and there's nothing to suggest Granada's trip to the Anoeta will be any different. Diego Martinez's team has woken up in its last two games but the challenge of La Real should stop their unbeaten run at two. Don't expect too many goals in this one, with Infogol's model giving just a 45% chance of more than 2.5.

Back the 2-0 @ 13/2

Madrid to cruise to victory against Alaves

Real Madrid v Alaves
Friday, 21:00
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A team with five straight defeats against one on an even longer winning streak only looks like going one way, especially given Real Madrid's unbeaten home record. The league leaders have allowed an average of just 0.9 xGA per game at home this season, so the hosts look unlikely to give much away against Alaves, with Infogol giving Zinedine Zidane's side a 76% chance of victory.

Back the 3-0 @ 11/2

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Just in time for the return of La Liga action, Infogol has improved its website and free app with; a cleaner look, More prominent xG features, Enhanced Form Guide and Over/Under % chance. Check them out at infogol.net

La Liga 19/20 Correct Score P/L

Staked: 30pts
Returned: 18.2pts
P+L: -11.8pts

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Recommended bets

Valencia v Real Valladolid: Back the 2-0 @ 9.809/1
Celta Vigo v Atletico Madrid: Back the 0-2 @ 10.009/1
Getafe v Villarreal: Back the 2-1 @ 12.0011/1
Real Betis v Osasuna: Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Barcelona v Espanyol: Back the 2-1 @ 12.50
Eibar v Leganes: Back the 2-0 @ 12.50
Mallorca v Levante: Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2
Athletic Bilbao v Sevilla: Back the 0-2 @ 12.50
Real Sociedad v Granada: Back the 2-0 @ 13/2
Real Madrid v Alaves: Back the 3-0 @ 11/2