La Liga Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW32

Jan Oblak Atletico Madrid
Jan Oblak has kept Atletico Madrid in control since the restart
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Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions...

"Quique Setien's title challengers drew a blank in their last away outing at Sevilla, ensuring the race to be crowned champions remains wide open, but their away form gives them a slight edge, with Infogol's model giving the visitors a 49% chance of victory and gives a 51% chance that only one team scores."

Sevilla to cruise to victory on home turf

Sevilla v Valladolid
Friday, 21:00
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Sevilla are back at home after twice coming from behind to draw at Villarreal last time out, a game in which they recorded 1.07xGF. Julen Lopetegui's team host a Valladolid side with almost as many points on the road (16) as at home (18), but with just 14.23xGF in their away matches, The home side have a 67% chance of victory, according to Infogol's model, as they look to go nine games unbeaten.

Back the 3-0 @ [10.5]

Home advantage to give Athletic edge against lowly Mallorca

Athletic Bilbao v Mallorca
Saturday, 13:00
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Athletic's last two games haven't been goal-heavy affairs, with Gaizka Garitano's team beating Real Betis 1-0 at San Mames and losing to Barcelona at Camp Nou by the same scoreline, though the narrow home scoreline betrays a game in which both sides registered more than 2xGF. Mallorca, meanwhile, face back-to-back away games after their defeat to Real Madrid at the Bernabeu - the last thing they need given their pitiful away record of five points from 15 games. Expect another home win for mid-table Athletic, but a 54% of BTTS suggests we might see busier goalkeepers than recent scorelines imply.

Back the 2-1 @ [10]

Celta challenge shouldn't derail Barcelona

Celta Vigo v Barcelona
Saturday, 14:00
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Barça face one of their toughest remaining matches, travelling to face a Celta side which put six past Alaves in their last home game from, though that was a 2.95xGF performance boosted by a couple of penalties. Quique Setien's title challengers drew a blank in their last away outing at Sevilla, ensuring the race to be crowned champions remains wide open, but their away form gives them a slight edge, with Infogol's model giving the visitors a 49% chance of victory and gives a 51% chance that only one team scores.

Back the 0-2 @ [9.20]

Leganes to come up empty at Osasuna

Osasuna v Leganes
Saturday, 16:30
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Despite Oscar Rodriguez's big late equaliser at Mallorca and a goalless draw with Granada, Leganes face an uphill battle to avoid the drop. They'll need to add to their nine away points, but Osasuna's home record of just 20 points is one of La Liga's worst. Infogol gives the hosts a 42% chance of notching a sixth home win of the season against Leganes, who are 30% to taste victory on the road for just the second time in 2019/20, while the model anticipates a low-scoring game (43% O2.5, 48% BTTS) which could hinge on whichever team takes its chances

Back the 2-0 @ [10.5]

Atleti to cruise past sorry Alaves

Atletico Madrid v Alaves
Saturday, 21:00
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Atletico Madrid have been flying since the restart, taking 10 points from 12 and conceding just one goal (from 2.97 xGA across the four games), while opponents Alaves have suffered three scoreless defeats out of four (and recording an xGF of 3.40). This ought to be as straightforward a home win as they come, with the Infogol model giving Atleti a 69% chance of victory, while BTTS is down at 43%.

Back the 3-0 @ [9.0]

Levante to all but seal safety with home victory

Levante v Real Betis
Sunday, 13:00
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Both Levante and Betis are hovering a few points above the bottom three, though they should have enough points on the board to stay afloat. That's certainly true of the home side, who can get above 40 points with a win. Paco López's's team lost in midweek to Atletico Madrid, snapping a four game unbeaten run, but their visitors have allowed opponents more than 30xGA on the road, including 4.69 across their last two away games and Infogol's model gives the home side a 40% chance of victory with a 68% chance of BTTS.

Back the 2-1 at [9.8]

Villarreal to pip Valencia in battle of Europe-chasers

Villarreal v Valencia
Sunday, 1600
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A potentially defining game in the race for Europe sees Villarreal and Valencia chase the consolation prize of Europa League football with their Champions League hopes fading fast. Indeed, a 1-0 defeat at Eibar on Thursday, with just 0.48 xGF, might have been the final dagger in the visitors' top-four hopes. Villarreal, with four points and 2.91 xGF from their last two home games, are 60% to win, according to the Infogol model, with goals likely (65% O2.5, 61% BTTS) as the hosts aim to continue sharing the goals around.

Back the 2-1 @ [9.4]

Granada v Eibar
Sunday, 18:30
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After coming from behind to beat Getafe in their first June game, Granada have gone three games without a win, though Eibar were in similarly underwhelming form before their huge win over Valencia. Something has to give, and the Infogol model predicts a low-scoring game going the way of the hosts. Eibar's drab away record, with just 11.83 xGF in their 15 away games, backs this up.

Back the 2-0 @ [9.8]

Real Madrid to get a fright in top v bottom game

ZidaneSept19.jpg

Espanyol v Real Madrid
Sunday, 21:00
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A bottom v top clash should make for a relatively routine away win, despite Espanyol recording a rare home win against Alaves earlier in the month. Madrid have maximum points since the restart, including a big win at Champions League chasers Real Sociedad, while their four games have brought 10 goals from 5.52 xGF. Back Zinedine Zidane's team to stay top, with Infogol giving them a 53% chance of a win, but it could be a tight one.

Back the 1-2 @ [8.8]

Getafe to end winless run against out-of-form Real Sociedad

Getafe v Real Sociedad
Monday, 21:00
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Two of the top seven meet on Monday, with both struggling since the restart, meaning this game presents an opportunity for one of the two to revive their European push. Home advantage should favour Getafe, who have a 47% chance of victory according to the Infogol model. With just a 45% likelihood of O2.5 and BTTS down at 44%, this might not be a classic.

Back the 2-0 @ 9/1

Just in time for the return of the big European leagues, Infogol has improved its website and free app with a cleaner look, More prominent xG features, Enhanced Form Guide and Over/Under % chance. Check them out at infogol.net.

Tom Victor,

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