La Liga Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW18

Franco Vázquez Sevilla
Franco Vázquez scored Sevilla's winner against Real Sociedad last season

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions as two of the top six meet in Seville...

"Real Sociedad lost further ground on the teams at the top last weekend, falling behind to Osasuna in the first half and escaping with just a point, and the sight of Sevilla up ahead will worry the visitors."

Villarreal to get the upper hand in top-half battle

Celta Vigo v Villarreal
Friday, 20:00
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The visit of Villarreal provides a real test of Celta Vigo's resurgence, as the hosts attempt to battle back from defeat in Madrid. Both teams have installed new managers since Manu Trigueros' strike gave the away side victory in June, but Infogol's model makes a repeat result the likeliest outcome at Balaídos as Unai Emery's side push to return to the top four.

Back the 0-2 @ 13.0012/1

Sevilla to continue top four charge

Sevilla v Real Sociedad
Saturday, 13:00
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Real Sociedad lost further ground on the teams at the top last weekend, falling behind to Osasuna in the first half and escaping with just a point, and the sight of Sevilla up ahead will worry the visitors. Julen Lopetegui's hosts are three points behind their opponents, albeit with three games in hand, and Infogol fancies them to earn a victory which would put them in pole position for a return to the Champions League at the end of the season.

Back the 2-0 @ 11.50

Atléti to shut out Athletic to stay in charge

Atlético Madrid v Athletic Bilbao
Saturday, 15:15
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Athletic made Barcelona work hard for a midweek win, but the effort expended in the first game under new boss Marcelino may be hard to replicate at the Wanda Metropolitano. League leaders Atléti are averaging just 0.77 xGA per game this season - albeit slightly more at home than away - and Infogol's model suggests a repeat of last season's 2-0 home win wouldn't be the hugest of surprises.

Back the 2-0 @ 6.6011/2

Granada's xG to catch up with them against Barcelona

Granada v Barcelona
Saturday, 17:30
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Infogol's xG table suggests Granada should be well short of their current seventh place in the table, though Diego Martínez's team have been producing better performances since the extra burden of Europa League group action disappeared. Nevertheless, the visit of an on-song Barça may be a step too far for a team coming off successive home wins, with the visitors given a 56% chance of victory.

Back the 1-2 @ 8.6015/2

Madrid to keep Osasuna in the mire

Osasuna v Real Madrid
Saturday, 20:00
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Three straight draws have kept Osasuna within reach of safety, but eight points from eight games at El Sadar is the source of their struggles this term. Real Madrid should consign them to another defeat, if Infogol's model is to be believed, though we may well see a closer contest than last season's 4-1 triumph for the visitors, who are averaging 1.9 xGF per game on the road.

Back the 1-2 @ 8.6015/2


Levante to leapfrog Eibar with home win

Levante v Eibar
Sunday, 13:00
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Levante have been a Jekyll and Hyde team this season, losing just once at home and winning just once away, and three straight victories at Ciutat de Valencia will make them confident against an Eibar side which currently sits a point ahead in mid-table. Despite impressive away points against Real Madrid and Real Sociedad in the last month, the visitors are tipped to fall short on Sunday according to Infogol.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2

Cádiz to earn a first win in six

Cádiz v Alavés
Sunday, 15:15
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No team has recorded more than 1 xGF in any of Cádiz's last four games in La Liga, and this has played its part in Álvaro Cervera's side failing to win any of their five games since beating Barcelona in early December. Alavés' average of 0.88 xGF across their last three away games suggests this may be another game of few clear chances, but the hosts are given a slight edge against opponents who sit two points below them in the table.

Back the 2-0 @ 13.0012/1

Getafe to triumph in clash of league's lowest scorers

Elche v Getafe
Sunday, 17:30
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These two sides are La Liga's lowest-scoring teams, in both real and expected terms, averaging less than one goal per game in both cases. With that in mind, Infogol doesn't anticipate an end-to-end clash, with just a 39% chance of more than 2.5 goals in the game at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, but the hosts' record of just one win from eight at home is expected to work against them.

Back the 0-2 @ 9.208/1

Valladolid and Valencia to stay in danger with draw

Real Valladolid v Valencia
Sunday, 20:00
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Shon Weissman's winner at Getafe last weekend was huge for Valladolid, but the strugglers will be desperate to ensure the victory doesn't go to waste. They host Valencia, one of the handful of teams below them, but Javi Gracia will be hopeful of earning at least a point on the road after recently holding Barcelona at Camp Nou. Infogol's model gives both sides a 35% chance of victory, but they may end up cancelling each other out.

Back the 1-1 @ 6.806/1

Huesca to climb off the bottom with rare win

Huesca v Real Betis
Monday, 20:00
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Narrow defeats to Barcelona and Celta Vigo in their last two outings have flattered Huesca, if anything, and Michel's team will likely need a better performance to get anything from an eminently winnable game on Monday night. Infogol anticipates a close-run contest, but the hosts will know the lie of the land going into the game and the knowledge that victory could take them off the foot of the table may be enough.

Back the 2-1 @ 10.50


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