After securing a 2.486/4 winner in Spain, Kev's backing Juventus to reach yet another major final.
"Juventus have won their last eight home games against tonight's opponents, and they've won their last five domestic matches on home soil."
Juventus v Atalanta
Wednesday 28 February, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Football
Juve to reach the final in style
So, as it turns out, even the strongest squad can fall prey to a shock defeat if they make too many changes. Cristiano Ronaldo and Marcelo were voluntarily added to a list of enforced absentees that includes Toni Kroos, Luka Modric and Casemiro, and Real paid the price as they lost 1-0 at Espanyol, their first defeat against the Catalan side for 11 years. That scoreline suited us just fine, as it landed us a 2.486/4 winner.
We'll take that money to Italy, as Juventus prepare to take on Atalanta in the second leg of the Coppa Italia semi-final. The two sides were meant to face each other at the weekend in Serie A, only for the game to be postponed because of heavy snow.
With Juventus leading 1-0 from the first leg and battling for the Serie A and Champions League trophies, you'd thick Bianconeri coach Max Allegri would be tempted to rest key players here. However, he is desperate to win the Coppa Italia again, as Juve are chasing an unprecedented fourth consecutive success in the competition. Although star striker Gonzalo Higuain is injured, Mario Mandzukic or Paulo Dybala are ready to deputise if needed. Don't expect a weak team here.
Atalanta coach Gian Piero Gasperini continues to work miracles, but his side suffered a heart-breaking Europa League exit against Borussia Dortmund, and now they need something very special to reach the Coppa Italia final. Their cause won't be helped by the suspension of centre-back Rafael Toloi.
Atalanta have some great players. Two of them, Leonardo Spinazzola and Mattia Caldara, are both on Juve's books. Josip Ilicic and Alejandro Gomez are clever and dangerous forwards, while Andreas Cornelius gives the team a real presence in attack.
For all of Atalanta's strengths, they have lost on their last eight visits to Turin to face Juve, and I think they'll be edged out again here by an excellent side that has won its last five domestic home matches. I'm pleasantly surprised to see Juve priced at 1.784/5 for the win, so that's what I'll back.
Points Staked: 29
Points Returned: 30.6
P/L: +1.6 points
Back Juventus to beat Atalanta at 1.784/5