After a return to winning ways in Portugal, Kev's looking for profit in Italy.
"Italy haven't scored more than once in any of their last eight matches, while all six of Finland's Nations League games featured fewer than three goals."
Back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.845/6
Gritty Finland to pose a few problems
Italy v Finland
Saturday 23 March, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports
So as it turns out, having Cristiano Ronaldo in your line-up doesn't always guarantee goals. Ukraine managed to grind out a 0-0 draw in Portugal, and our Under 2.5 Goals bet landed with room to spare.
We're continuing our European tour in Italy, as the Azzurri prepare to take on Finland in their Euro 2020 qualification opener. Roberto Mancini is at the helm, and after an underwhelming Nations League campaign that saw the Italians finish behind Portugal but ahead of Italy, they are now hoping to make an early statement in the qualifiers.
Mancini has called up talents from both ends of the age spectrum. 36-year-old Fabio Quagliarella has banged in 21 Serie A goals for Sampdoria this season, while 19-year-old starlet Moise Kean recently scored a brace for Juventus against Udinese.
Finland also have an in-form striker at their disposal. Former Schalke forward Teemu Pukki has had an extraordinary campaign with promotion-chasing Norwich City, scoring 24 league goals to help fire the Canaries to the top of the table.
In the Nations League, the Finns caught the eye, winning promotion to the second tier. They won their first four matches, before losing the next two. None of those six matches featured more than two goals.
Italy haven't scored more than one goal in any of their last eight matches, and their last seven have seen an Under 2.5 Goals bet land. I don't expect that sequence to be broken tonight.