Against All Odds: Italian giants to struggle in front of goal

Morgan De Sanctis is having a fine campaign
Morgan De Sanctis is having a fine campaign
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There's live television action from Serie A this evening but Paul Robinson thinks that those who tune into BT Sport won't be rewarded with many goals when Roma travel to Inter.

"The visitors have netted only 42 times this term, with just 16 of them coming on the road."

Lay Over 1.5 goals in Inter v Roma @ 1.42/5

Inter v Roma
Saturday April 25, 19:45 BST
Live on BT Sport 1

The Milan derby was a terrible game last week and the 0-0 result summed up the current state of both clubs. Inter will be hoping to put that behind them this week but Roma will be a tough assignment for a team who have won just one of their last seven league outings.

After trading at short odds to win the title pre-season, Roma haven't been able to live up to those expectations. Back to back draws have seen them drop to third place and they now only have a five point cushion over Napoli behind them.

The match odds are too hard to call in this one but there is plenty of value to be had in opposing goals. The visitors have netted only 42 times this term, with just 16 of them coming on the road. Due to their solid defence - 23 conceded - their matches this season are averaging a mere 2.1 goals each time, which is the second lowest average in the entire division.

Roberto Mancini's Inter have scored more and conceded more but things have tightened up recently. Four of their last five have gone under 2.5, with half of those going under 1.5. It's also worth noting that their last half dozen scorelines at the San Siro read - 0-1, 3-0, 0-1, 1-1, 1-1 and 0-0.

This should be quite a close encounter and we know that it's highly unlikely that Roma will concede more than one goal. That's why, with over 1.5 trading as low as 1.42/5, I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Over 1.5 goals in Inter v Roma @ 1.42/5

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 113 pts
Returned: 91.64 pts
P/L: - 21.36 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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