Against All Odds: Milan derby to continue recent trend

Alessio Cerci was once sold for €16M
Alessio Cerci was once sold for €16M
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It's the Milan derby this evening and Paul Robinson thinks that the recent trend of low-scoring affairs will continue.

"The last five scorelines between the pair were 1-1, 1-0, 1-0, 1-1 and 0-1."

Lay Over 2.5 goals in Inter v AC Milan @ 1.991/1

Inter v AC Milan
Sunday April 19, 19:45 BST
Live on BT Sport 1

It's hardly been a vintage year for either club as Inter are 10th and Milan ninth. It's highly unlikely that the city of Milan will be represented in Europe next season and all they have left to play for is local pride in tonight's big showdown.

The 'visitors' come into the game in slightly better form having taken nine points from their last six outings. Their two wins came within their three most recent fixtures as they beat both Cagliari and Palermo, before drawing with Sampdoria on Sunday.

Inter were victors last weekend as they put in a rare good performance to win 3-0 at Hellas Verona. That was their first victory since February as following a trio of wins that month, they were beaten by Fiorentina and Sampdoria, and held by Napoli, Cesena and Parma.

It's the goal statistics that concern us today though and recent history suggests that there won't be too many scored. The last five scorelines between the pair were 1-1, 1-0, 1-0, 1-1 and 0-1.

Things look even better when we take into account Roberto Mancini's sides last five home results in Serie A - 0-1, 3-0, 0-1, 1-1 and 1-1. And while four of Milan's last five on the road had three goals or more, it's worth remembering that this match is being played in their home stadium, where three of their last five finished with the net bulging only twice.

The market is struggling to split overs and unders for this game but the stats are heavily favouring the latter. That's why, with over 2.5 goals trading at around the 1.991/1 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Over 2.5 goals in Inter v AC Milan @ 1.991/1

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 107 pts
Returned: 87.55 pts
P/L: - 19.45 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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