Infogol's Weekend Euro Tips: Back goals at the Allianz

Bayern Munich fans sing
Bayern fans can cheer plenty of goals at the Allianz
Join today View market

The Infogol experts return with a look at the European action, using expected goals (xG) data to select this weekend's best bets. All games are available to watch on Betfair Live Video...

"Bayern Munich were very impressive against Hoffenheim, racking up 3.08 xGF, and defensively they were incredibly solid against Stuttgart, conceding just 0.15 xGA – worrying signs for the rest of Germany."

Bayern among the goals again

Bayern Munich vs Bayer Leverkusen
Saturday, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

Bayern Munich have started the season as everyone has expected them to, in dominant fashion.

Not much appears to have changed under new boss Niko Kovač, with Bayern swatting aside both Hoffenheim and Stuttgart in their opening two matches.

They were very impressive against Hoffenheim, racking up 3.08 xGF, and defensively they were incredibly solid against Stuttgart, conceding just 0.15 xGA - worrying signs for the rest of Germany.

Even though we are only two games into the season, it is hard to see this being the season that Bayern's six-year dominance is broken.

Bayer Leverkusen had a very strong 2017/18 campaign, and although they finished fifth, they were in fact the third best team in the league.

But things haven't started well this time around for Heiko Herrlich's side, as they have lost both of their opening matches, and quite convincingly according to expected goals.

infogol-leverkusen-two-shot-map.png

A 2-0 away defeat to Borussia Mönchengladbach (xG: BMG 3.11 - BAY 1.02) and a 3-1 home defeat to Wolfsburg (xG: BAY 1.12 - 2.36 WOL) leave them third bottom of the table.

Though it has only been two matches, the fact that they have conceded 5.47 xGA is alarming, and clearly shows that something isn't right in their defensive process.

Unless that something is fixed, they could be in for a troublesome season, and as for this game, Bayern Munich are the one team you don't want to face in Germany when you are struggling defensively, meaning the selection is Over 3.5 goals.

Free-scoring Madrid will be at it again

Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid
Saturday, 19:45
Live on Eleven Sports 1 and Betfair Live Video

Athletic Bilbao are unbeaten so far this season, though they have only played two matches due to Rayo Vallecano's Stadium renovation not yet finished.

They deservedly beat a poor Leganes side 2-1 (xG: ATH 2.72 - 1.27 LEG), before being held at home by newly-promoted Huesca in a game of few quality chances (xG: ATH 0.60 - 0.27 HUE).

This is undoubtedly their biggest test to date, and it is expected that they will be some way short of Real Madrid in this game.

Bilbao aren't the team they used to be, and with their 'Basque-only' transfer policy, they struggle to strengthen year on year, and new manager Eduardo Berizzo isn't expected to get too much more improvements out of the players.

Zidane who? Ronaldo who? It's fair to say that the transition from one of Real Madrid's most successful managers and their all-time top-goalscorer has gone pretty smoothly.

Three convincing wins have Madridistas purring, with their new expansive style of play, where they play as a team, under Julen Lopetegui gaining plaudits already.

infogol-la-liga-xG-table-GW3-top-six.jpg

As well as being easy on the eye, Madrid have been ruthless, generating 9.02 xGF in three matches, while conceding just 1.98 xGA.

The new front three of Gareth Bale, Karim Benzema and Marco Asensio are working well together, with Benzema being the main beneficiary of Ronaldo's departure. The French forward has scored four goals already - just one shy of his 2017/18 tally already.

Another impressive and attacking Real Madrid display is expected in this match, which should result in a high-scoring game, with Over 3.5 goals looking good value at 5/4.

Lazio to win again

Empoli vs Lazio
Sunday, 17:00
Live on Eleven Sports 2 and Betfair Live Video

Empoli have won four points from a possible nine, meaning it has - so far - been an impressive return to the Italian top flight.

After deservedly beating Cagliari (xG: EMP 1.25 - 0.82 CAG), they were unfortunate to lose to Genoa (xG: GEN 1.43 - 1.00 EMP) before rightly sharing the spoils against Chievo (xG: CHI 1.47 - 1.16 EMP).

They have been pretty consistent in terms of chance creation, averaging 1.38 xGF per game, and if they keep this up, they will prove a tough opponent for anyone in the league.

Lazio have had a tough start, opening with two matches against last season's top two - Juventus and Napoli - deservedly losing both.

Their last game though saw a 1-0 victory over Frosinone, in what was a very impressive display and more like the Lazio we saw last season.

infogol-lazio-vs-frosinone-shot-map-2.png

Simone Inzaghi's side generated a host of chances in that game, racking up 2.86 xG and being unlucky to have only won by one goal.

Though Lazio currently sit down in 16th place in the league, don't expect them to be there for long.

Their attacking threat should prove too strong for a decent Empoli outfit, with the Rome based side excellent value to come away with another three points.

Visit infogol.net and get all of our football tips

Infogol's 2018/19 Euro P+L

Staked: 9pts
Returned: 10.1pts
P+L: +1.1pts

Join today View market

Discover the latest articles

Read past articles