Using expected goals (xG) data, Infogol's analyst picks out four bets across the Premier League and La Liga to help build your weekend multiples...
"Carlos Carvahal’s side are the worst attacking team in the league according to expected goals, generating just 28.4 xG in 32 matches – an average of 0.9 xG per game"
Sevilla to sink Yellow Submarine
Sevilla vs Villarreal
Live on Sky Sports Football Red Button
This looks to be an important game in the fight for European football in Spain, with just a point separating seventh-placed Sevilla and sixth-placed Villarreal. Sevilla gave a good account of themselves in the Champions League against Bayern Munich, going down 2-1 on aggregate, limiting the German Champions to few chances (2 leg xG: BAY 2.9 - 1.6 SEV).
Their league form has taken a hit of late having failed to win in any of their last four, but the results don't tell the full story. They have scored three goals in that time, but based on chances created, they should have scored closer to 8 (7.7 xG). So their process has been good, and has deserved more.
Villarreal on the other hand, continue to perform to a poor level. They sit in sixth in the league, but according to performances in matches, they have been only the 13th best team. A 3-1 home defeat to Athletic Bilbao was yet another game in which they conceded a host of chances (xG: VIL 0.8 - 4.0 BIL).
They are conceding an average of 1.7 xG, and come up against a Sevilla team that generates a lot of chances, so the generous 20/23 price available for a home win is too good to turn down.
Infogol's Premier League Expected Goals table
Toffees value to earn rare away win
Swansea vs Everton
Swansea come into this game without a win in three games, a run that leaves them just four points above the relegation zone. A 1-1 draw against bottom side West Brom will feel like a missed opportunity, but in the end, they were actually rather fortunate to get a point (xG: WBA 1.4 - 0.6 SWA).
Carlos Carvahal's side are the worst attacking team in the league according to expected goals, generating just 28.4 xG in 32 matches - an average of 0.9 xG per game. Their recent games haven't seen an improvement either, with them failing to register more than 1 xG in six of their last seven games.
Everton were rather underwhelming in the Merseyside derby, and rarely threatened a weakened Liverpool team (xG: EVE 0.5 - 1.1 LIV). They are averaging 1.2 xG per game this season.
Away wins have also been hard to come by for the Toffee's, but they did deservedly beat Stoke on their last trip, and a similar dominant performance is expected here (xG: STO 0.9 - 2.9 EVE). At a great price (2/1), Everton look good value to get the win against a weak Swansea team.
Rejuvenated Bilbao to be threat again
Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo
Live on Sky Sports Football
Athletic Bilbao earned a deserved and much needed win in an extremely impressive display away at Villarreal (xG: VIL 0.8 - 4.0 BIL). That was their best attacking display of the season so far, with a line-up containing more pace offering them much more threat.
Bilbao haven't been as bad as their league position would suggest this season, with a lack of clinical finishing seemingly costing them. They have scored just 33 goals so far, but based on the chances they created they should have hit the net closer to 51 times.
Deportivo ended a 15 match winless run by beating Malaga 3-2 last time out, a deserved win in which they generated a host of chances (xG: DEP 3.0 - 1.1 MAL). Clarence Seedorf's side remain eight points from safety despite that victory, and need plenty more wins if they are to do the unlikely and stay up.
They are unfortunate to be where they are based on performances, with them being the twelfth best team in the league this season. With Deportivo desperate for three points, and conceding an average of 1.8 xG per game, an open match is expected meaning the 11/10 price on over 2.5 goals looks good value.
Infogol's La Liga Expected Goals table
Getafe to come out on top
Getafe vs Espanyol
Live on Sky Sports Football
Getafe have had a tough time of late, losing five of their last seven matches. They have been unlucky in three of those matches though, where they deserved to win based on chances created (vs Villarreal, vs Levante, vs Real Betis).
They have in fact been the fourth best team in the league this season based on performances, generating an average of 1.5 xG per game. They can finish the season strongly if they maintain their current process.
Espanyol have won just two of their last 13 matches in the league, and were deservedly beaten by Valencia in their last game, another match in which they conceded a lot of good chances (xG: VAL 2.0 - 1.6 ESP).
Quique Sanchez Flores' side have been much poorer defensively this season compared to last, where they conceded an average of just 1.1 xG per game. Compare that to 1.7 xG this term and it's clear to see they have gone backwards. Getafe look a good bet at 11/10 to take advantage of the weak Espanyol defence.
Back Sevilla to win v Villarreal @ 20/23 (Sportsbook)
Back Everton to win v Swansea @ 2/1 (Sportsbook)
Back Over 2.5 goals in Athletic Bilbao v Deportivo @ 11/10 (Sportsbook)
Back Getafe to win v Espanyol @ 11/10 (Sportsbook)
This weekend's Infogol acca pays around 25/1 (Sportsbook)