Infogol Expected Goals Tips: Back RBL to thwart Bayern in 25/1 treble

RB Leipzig mascot
RB Leipzig can upset Bayern

Infogol's analyst is back with the best bets across the European action, using expected goals (xG) data to select a nicely priced weekend treble...

"RB Leipzig create plenty of chances on a regular basis – averaging 1.85 xGF per game – so have the firepower to hurt Bayern here."

RBL to halt Bayern's title celebrations

RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich
Saturday, 14.30 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video

RB Leipzig are in great form heading into this game, having won 10 of their last 14 league games, drawing the other four, as they have secure third place in the Bundesliga this season.

According to expected goals they have been the second-best team in the league this season, behind Bayern, and this will be the first of two games between the sides before the end of the campaign, with RBL and Bayern Munich meeting in the DFB-Pokal Final.

They create plenty of chances on a regular basis - averaging 1.85 xGF per game - so have the firepower to hurt Bayern here.

The reigning champions need a win here to secure another title, but a draw might be enough depending on how Dortmund fare against Fortuna Düsseldorf.

Niko Kovač's side deservedly sit top of the table according to expected goals, having been by far and away the best team in the league this season.

They have drawn two of their last three away league games, most recently at second from bottom Nürnberg (xG: NUR 1.97 - 1.83 BAY).

Chancing Bayern to come up short again here is the selection, with RB Leipzig good value to get something from this game.

Samp to add to Empoli woes

Sampdoria vs Empoli
Sunday, 14:00 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video

Sampdoria come into this game having won just one of their last six matches, losing four, but they have been very unfortunate in that time, having been the better team in three of those games according to xG.

That was the case against Parma last weekend, a 3-3 draw in which they created the better of the chances, and deserved the three points (xG: PAR 2.24 - 2.74 SAM).

Empoli are in the relegation zone and two points from safety with just three games left, following a 1-0 win over Fiorentina, though they were extremely fortunate to do so.

It was yet another game in which they conceded a host of chances (xG: EMP 0.86 - 2.53 FIO), something they have been doing on a regular basis this season, having allowed 1.62 xGA per game.

Empoli are defensively vulnerable, and this strong and underestimated Sampdoria side look great value to get the three points here.

Eibar too big to go unbacked

Villarreal vs Eibar
Sunday, 17:30 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video

Villarreal are three points above the drop zone with two games left following a revival in the second half of season, and although they have won three of their last six matches, they have been very fortunate to do so according to xG.

They have conceded an average of 1.67 xGA per game in their last 10 matches, so are defensively vulnerable, and even though they need points in order to secure safety here, their gung-ho style of attacking football may play into Eibar's hands.

Basque minnows Eibar sit in mid-table with two games remaining, but according to expected goals, have been the fifth best team in La Liga this season.

They come into this game on the back of successive 1-0 wins over Valencia and Real Betis, and although their goal difference reads -3, their expected goal difference is 13.04 xGD, showing just how much better they have been than their league position and points tally would suggest.

Eibar can finish the season strongly, and are hugely over-priced in this game, with the Infogol model making them 17/10 (37%) favourites for this game, so the 4/1 on offer represents great value and should be backed.

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