Infogol Expected Goals Tips: Back Espanyol to help land 13/1 treble

Espanyol player battles
Espanyol can battle to another win

Infogol's analyst is back with the best bets across the European action, using expected goals (xG) data to select a nicely priced weekend treble...

"In their last five matches, Espanyol have generated a huge average of 2.27 xGF per game, so have no issues in attack, and they thumped Atletico Madrid 3-0 in their last home game, so are full of confidence."

Few goals at the Allianz

Bayern Munich vs Frankfurt
Saturday, 14:30 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video

This is a huge game for both teams, with Bayern Munich needing only a point to retain the title, and Frankfurt needing at the very least a point in order to have any chance of finishing fourth.

Bayern have been far and away the best team in the league this season, and are unfortunate not to have wrapped up the title already, so big is the gulf between them and the rest.

They have drawn two of their last three games, with one of those coming away at third placed RB Leipzig, a game in which they were unfortunate not to win (xG: RBL 0.45 - 1.69 BAY).

Frankfurt sit sixth heading into the final game of the season, and haven't enjoyed a good end to the campaign, as they are five without a win following a 2-0 defeat to Mainz last weekend, though they were very unfortunate to lose (xG: FRA 1.63 - 1.18 MAI).

That poor run of form will have no doubt been affected by their Europa League run, having to play Thursday-Sunday every week, which looks to have taken its toll on this already thin Frankfurt squad.

They will be fresher here, and know that they need to get a result in this match, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see them attempt to make this a tight game, so backing under 2.5 goals is the selection here.

Espanyol to extend great run

Espanyol vs Real Sociedad
Saturday, 15:15 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video

Espanyol meet Real Sociedad, with both needing a win and for Athletic Bilbao to lose in order to finish seventh and qualify for the Europa League, so there is plenty to play for here.

Espanyol have finished the season in great form, and come into this game unbeaten in eight matches, winning four of them, with performances warranting the results.

In their last five matches, they have generated a huge average of 2.27 xGF per game, so have no issues in attack, and they thumped Atletico Madrid 3-0 in their last home game, so are full of confidence.

Real Sociedad have won their last three matches to give themselves a chance of qualifying for Europe, though they have won just one of their last eight away matches in the league.

In those away matches, Sociedad have conceded an average of 1.65 xGA per game, so could be there for the taking, and it is Espanyol that are fancied to get the win here.

Tight game at San Siro

AC Milan v Frosinone
Sunday, 17:00 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video

AC Milan have it all to do to make the top four, as they sit three points behind fourth-placed Atalanta, but have a superior head-to-head record. Despite winning their last two, it seems dropped points to Torino and Parma in the two games prior might be where Milan let it slip.

Gennaro Gattuso's side have been hard to break down in recent matches. In their last five, they have conceded an average of 0.99 xGA per game and allowed just one 'big' chance (35% or greater) in that time.

However, Milan's defensive solidity has come at a price. Their attacking exploits in that same timeframe have been underwhelming to say the least. The Rossoneri haven't had a 'big' chance from open play in their last five matches, and have been limited largely to speculative efforts, averaging just 1.04 xG per game.

Already-relegated Frosinone sit 19th, and according to our expected goals table, that's where they deserve to be. Despite being without a win in their last five, the Canaries continue to fight, and have been unlucky in their last two matches.

Though a Milan win looks likely (62% according to our model), recent exploits suggest that the home side may well struggle to create enough chances to put Frosinone to the sword, and backing under 2.5 goals represents good value.

Infogol's 2018/19 Euro P+L

Staked: 99pts
Returned: 95.85pts
P+L: -3.15pts

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