Infogol Expected Goals Tips: Back Atalanta in 17/1 treble

Duvan Zapata celebrates
Duvan Zapata can lead Atalanta to victory

Infogol's analyst is back with the best bets across the European action, using expected goals (xG) data to select a nicely priced weekend treble...

"Atalanta's process, especially in attack, has been sensational, and in fact, Atalanta have been the best attacking team in the league this season, averaging 1.86 xGF per game."

Not the mauling many may expect at the Allianz

Bayern Munich vs Hannover
Saturday, 14.30 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video

Bayern Munich missed a huge opportunity last weekend to put themselves four points clear of Dortmund with just three games to play, but they could only draw away at second bottom Nürnberg, and that was a fair reflection of how the game panned out (xG: NUR 1.97 - 1.83 BAY).

They continue to create extremely good chances in matches, having averaged a whopping 3.16 xGF per game in their last eight Bundesliga games, so expect them to beat the bottom side here.

Hannover won for the first time in 10 matches last weekend, and while they are now certain of a bottom three finish, they still have chance of finishing third from bottom, which would mean a relegation play-off.

While they beat Mainz last weekend, they were extremely unfortunate to do so according to expected goals (xG: HAN 0.77 - 2.73 MAI), with a similar performance here more than likely ending in defeat.

While this may be top versus bottom, and the gulf between the two sides being huge, it may not be the hammering many are expecting, with backing under 4.5 goals the selection.

Atalanta to maintain top four push

Lazio vs Atalanta
Sunday, 14:00 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video

This game could have a huge bearing on who finishes in the top four in Italy, with Lazio in eighth and Atalanta currently occupying fourth spot, with just four points between them.

Lazio were in the driving seat to finish in the top four, but a poor run of form in which they won just two of their last six matches, and did beat Sampdoria last time out, though they were fortunate to do so (xG: SAM 1.46 - 1.05 LAZ).

They have been the fifth best team in the league so far this season, but have shown defensive vulnerabilities of late, so could be caught out here.

Atalanta continue to impress this season, and with a deserved 2-0 win over Udinese on Monday, moved into the top four, which is where they deserve to be according to expected goals.

Their process, especially in attack, has been sensational, and in fact, Atalanta have been the best attacking team in the league this season, averaging 1.86 xGF per game.

The visitors in this game have too much firepower for Lazio, so it is a surprise to see them at such a big price to win this game, with the 21/10 about Atalanta representing great value.

Huesca to keep hopes alive

Huesca vs Valencia
Sunday, 19:45 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video

Huesca drew with Villarreal last weekend to keep their survival hopes alive, though they face a stiff task, being seven points from safety with just three games remaining.

The La Liga minnows are unbeaten in six matches, and have been very unfortunate in that time not to have won more matches, with performances very impressive, shown by their underlying process in that time - 1.78 xGF and 1.47 xGA per game.

Valencia have lost their last three games in all competitions, the latest being a 3-1 first leg defeat in their Europa League semi-final with Arsenal.

Their last two league games have seen defeats, to both Atletico Madrid and Eibar, as they conceded good chances in both (1.79 xGA vs ATM, 1.53 xGA vs EIB).

There is every chance that Valencia could have their focus on the second leg of their Europa League fixture, and could rest players here. That, coupled with the fact Huesca have been playing very well of late, backing the home side to win is the selection.

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Infogol's 2018/19 Euro P+L

Staked: 93pts
Returned: 88.70pts
P+L: -4.30pts

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