More away woes for Barca
Eibar vs Barcelona
Saturday, 12:00 GMT
Another away game for Barcelona, will it be more dropped points?
They travel to the Basque country to face a rejuvenated Eibar side, who are unbeaten in their last four La Liga games, registering two wins, both of which came at home.
A draw at Real Betis was a good result for Eibar before the break, but both home wins, against Sevilla and Celta Vigo, were very impressive performances and deserved results, and the Ipurua Municipal Stadium is always a tough place for any team to go.
The main reason I'm looking at this game is because of Barcelona.
On the face of it, things are back to normal at the Nou Camp, with Ernesto Valverde's side registering four wins in their last five league games, but the results don't tell the full story.
Their 4-0 win over Sevilla was an unbelievably fortunate result, as Barca actually lost the xG battle in that game (xG: BAR 2.46 - 3.27 SEV), and the reigning champions sit 8th in Infogol's xG table, with an expected goal difference of just +0.53... their actual GD is 10 - a huge over-performance.
Away from home, Barca rate as only the 12th best team in the league on xG, generating an average of 0.86 xGF and allowing 1.40 xGA per game - that is a process of a bottom half team - so clearly don't like playing on the road.
They have already lost at Athletic Bilbao, drawn at Osasuna and lost at Granada, so there is no reason why Barca should be so short to win this game (1.59).
Infogol calculates that Barca have only a 38% (2.63) chance of winning here, so laying Valverde's side on the Exchange is the selection, or if you bet on the Sportsbook, back Eibar or the Draw.
Another big win for Atalanta
Lazio vs Atalanta
Saturday, 14:00 GMT
A big game in Italy, as two top four hopefuls do battle in Rome.
Lazio come into this game on the back of a 2-2 draw with Bologna, a fortunate result according to expected goals (xG: BOL 2.81 - 1.62 LAZ), and yet another game in which they looked vulnerable defensively.
They are allowing 1.24 xGA per game this season, so will likely give up chances to this excellent attacking Atalanta team.
Gian Piero Gasperini's Atalanta side sit in third spot in Serie A, picking up from where they left off last season, and come into this having won four of their last five matches, including a victory in Rome already.
Atalanta rank as the best attacking team in Serie A so far this season, averaging 2.27 xGF per game, and even though Duván Zapata is out for this game, the visitors still possess enough attacking talent to cause serious problems for the hosts.
Infogol makes the visitors favourites for this game (41% - 2.44), so given that they are priced as outsiders here (3.20 - 31%), there is huge amount of value in backing Atalanta here.
Wolfsburg to extend unbeaten start
RB Leipzig vs Wolfsburg
Saturday, 14:30 GMT
After a hot start, RB Leipzig's season has stalled of late, managing just one win in their last four matches, meaning they sit fifth in the table after seven matches.
Julian Nagelsmann's side do create good chances in matches, but they remain vulnerable defensively (1.52 xGA per game) as shown in recent games against Schalke (2.87 xGA) and Bayer Leverkusen (2.02 xGA per game).
Wolfsburg remain the only unbeaten team in Germany this season after four wins and three draws from their opening seven matches.
They sit second in the table, and their underlying process has been very impressive, especially defensively, where they rate as the best defensive team in the Bundesliga, allowing just 0.81 xGA per game.
RBL are expected to struggle to breakdown this Wolfsburg defence, and I'm hugely surprised to see the hosts such short favourites (1.59 - 63%) for this game.
The Infogol model suggests RBL should be priced closer to 1.96 (51%), so laying the hosts on the Exchange is the selection, or backing Wolfsburg or Draw on the Sportsbook.
Lille to get back to winning ways
Toulouse vs Lille
Saturday, 19:00 GMT
Toulouse entered the international break third bottom of the Ligue 1 table after a winless five game stretch, so are desperate for points as we head into gameweek 10.
Their underlying numbers suggest that they are a relegation threatened team, as they barely offer an attacking threat (1.10 xGF per game), while continuously looking weak defensively (1.68 xGA per game).
Lille on the other hand, have been extremely impressive so far this season, and are unfortunate to only sit fifth after nine games.
They rank as they second best team behind only PSG, so are clearly doing an awful lot right in 19/20, just like in 18/19 when they secured a second-place finish.
Defensively they are solid (0.95 xGA per game), and in attack they pose a serious threat (1.64 xGF per game), with Victor Osimhen leading the line and the scoring charts in France.
Infogol gives Lille a 49% (2.04) chance of getting the win, so the 2.24 (44%) available on the Exchange represents good value.
The Infogol model calculates that this fourfold should be around 15/1, but it is available at 36/1 on the Sportsbook
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