Infogol Expected Goals Euro Acca: Back Goals at the Bernabeu and Borussia Park

Real Madrid manager Zinedine Zidane
Zinedine Zidane can see his side rack up the goals again
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Infogol analyst Jake Osgathorpe is back with the best bets across Europe after going three out of four last weekend, using expected goals (xG) data to select a nicely priced weekend fourfold...

"Zinedine Zidane’s side are currently generating an average of 2.42 xGF per game, which is bad news for Saturday’s visitors Espanyol."

No clean-sheet for Real

Real Madrid vs Espanyol
Saturday, 12:00 GMT

El Clasico is rapidly approaching and there is currently nothing to choose between Real Madrid and Barcelona at the top of La Liga.

Both teams have amassed 31 points so far this season but it is Madrid that lead the way by some margin over their title rivals in terms of expected goals for (xGF). Zinedine Zidane's side are currently generating an average of 2.42 xGF per game, which is bad news for Saturday's visitors Espanyol.

Karim Benzema comes in for a fair amount of criticism but he is currently the top scorer in La Liga and rates as the second best player in terms of expected goals (8.95 xG), with only Alvaro Morato recording a higher xG this season.

Espanyol are currently languishing in 19th position and are facing a real struggle to survive, with the team from Barcelona already five points adrift of safety.

A lack of goals looks to be the problem, and expected goals backs this up, as they are the fourth worst attacking team according to xG, averaging a lowly 1.17 xGF per game.

Real are unbeaten at home in La Liga since Zidane's return and look nailed on to win but are way too short to recommend backing, so we must look for the value elsewhere.

Infogol calculates a 54% (1.85) chance that both teams find the net, which suggests the 2.10 (48%) available on the exchange is worth getting involved in.

Always Goals when Foals play at home

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayern Munich
Saturday, 14:30 GMT
Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome Bayern Munich Borussia Park on Saturday in a huge game for Marco Rose's side.

Mönchengladbach currently occupy top spot in the Bundesliga, with Bayern four points behind in fourth, and a win here could see the Foals put seven points between themselves and the reigning champions.

More often than not the Bundesliga is a pure formality for Bayern but this season is shaping up differently to previous campaigns.

Hans-Dieter Flick's side have already been beaten three times this season and are four points off top, but all the xG stats insist they can consider themselves somewhat unlucky to be in the position they find themselves in.

The 29-time league winners rate as the best attacking team in the league (2.68 xGF per game), and the second best defensive team in the league (1.26 xGA per game).

Mönchengladbach are an attractive side with a strong attacking process to boot (2.39 xGF per game). Their attacking exploits are bettered only by todays visitors so we expect plenty of goals in what promises to be an exciting game.

Infogol calculates a 57% (1.75) chance that this game will see more than 3.5 goals, making the 1.99 (50%) available on the exchange substantial value.

Goals between two strugglers

Strasbourg vs Toulouse
Saturday, 19:00 GMT
Strasbourg play host to bottom of the league Toulouse in what could be an early season six pointer.

Strasbourg are just three points above the relegation zone, but we think they have been hard done by this season and will make amends sooner rather than later given they sit 7th in our xG table.

Thierry Laurey's team are a real threat going forward and rank fifth overall on xGF (20.5), while their defence can also hold their head up with Infogol rating them as the eighth stingiest in France.

Toulouse are bottom for a reason, and that reason is their defence. They have deservedly conceded the most goals in the league, ranking bottom on xGA and need to tighten up if they are to get anything from this game.

Surprisingly, Antoine Kombouaré's side often put up a decent effort going forward with ex-Leeds player Max Gradel rating as their most potent threat (3.91 xG).

Infogol calculates a 56% (1.79) chance of both teams scoring on Saturday so it could be worth backing the 1.90 (53%) on the exchange.

Old Lady to end Lazio run

Lazio vs Juventus
Saturday, 19:45 GMT

A big game in Italy on Saturday, as two of the form teams face off in the capital, with Lazio - who are on a six game winning streak - host second placed Juventus.

Lazio are in sensational form after a slow start (two wins in first five), coming into this unbeaten in nine Serie A matches, winning seven of those to propel themselves into third place in the league.

That position slightly flatters them, as they sit 5th in our xG table, but their process is excellent (1.92 xGF, 1.28 xGA per game), and they pose a real threat to Juve in this game.

However, the main times Lazio have dropped points this season have come against the top teams, losing to Inter Milan, and drawing with both Roma and Atalanta, with both draws coming at home.

Juventus relinquished top spot in Serie A last weekend after a draw with Sassuolo, though ironically it was actually Juventus' best performance of the season so far, according to expected goals (xG: JUV 4.88 - 0.60 SAS).

They have been the second-best team through 14 games though according to xG, behind Inter Milan, but they too boast a fantastic process (2.01 xGF, 1.11 xGA per game), making this a clash between two of Italy's very best.

I feel as though another one of Juventus' big game performances will rear its head in this game, they just seem to have a knack, having already beaten Napoli, Inter Milan, and Atalanta this season, with two of those coming on the road.

Infogol calculates a 43% (2.33) chance of an away win, meaning the 2.48 (40%) about Juventus on the Exchange represents good value, and should be backed.

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Infogol's 19/20 Euro P+L

19/20
Staked: 51pts
Returned: 33.68pts
P+L: -17.32pts

18/19
Staked: 102pts
Returned: 100.9pts
P+L: -1.1pts

Jake Osgathorpe,

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