Infogol Expected Goals Euro Acca: Back against Atleti in 14/1 fourfold

Diego Costa Atletico Madrid
Diego Costa will find it difficult to breach Bilbao on Saturday
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Infogol's analyst is back with the best bets across Europe, using expected goals (xG) data to select a nicely priced weekend fourfold...

"Athletic Bilbao have also been a tough team to beat this season, but frustrating to watch, as they are nearly as solid as Atletico (0.95 xGA per game), so don't allow many chances per game."

No clean sheet for Juve

Lecce vs Juventus
Saturday, 14:00 GMT

Lecce won their seventh point of the season in GW8 of Serie A, and it came at the San Siro, as they scored a late equaliser to deny AC Milan the three points, and that was a fair result (xG: ACM 1.68 - 1.43 LEC).

They have understandably struggled so far this season, in both results and underlying numbers, and while their defensive process is the worst in Serie A, they have shown a capability of creating good chances (1.25 xGF per game), even against the best teams.

Lecce have racked up over 1 xGF in games against Torino, Napoli, Atalanta and AC Milan, so facing Juventus here won't phase their attacking players.

Juventus remain top of the table after a deserved 2-1 win over Bologna last weekend (xG: JUV 1.83 - 1.00 BOL), but continue to look vulnerable defensively this season under Maurizio Sarri.

They have allowed an average of 1.18 xGA per game this season in 11 matches in all competitions (Serie A and Champions League), so are far from solid, and have kept just three clean-sheets in eight Serie A matches.

Infogol calculates a 54% (1.85) chance of BTTS at Stadio Via del Mare, making the 1.98 (51%) available on the Exchange good value.

Cagey Revierderby

Schalke vs Dortmund
Saturday, 14:30 GMT

A huge game in Germany, as Schalke and Dortmund do battle in the Revierderby, separated by just a point after eight games.

Schalke were beaten for the second time this season against Hoffenheim last weekend, but they were unfortunate not to get a point (xG: HOF 0.93 - 0.97 SCH).

They have been pretty solid defensively this season under David Wagner, especially of late, as they have allowed an average of just 1.09 xGA per game in their last six matches, so aren't giving much up.

Dortmund gained a huge three points against Borussia Mönchengladbach last weekend, but were very fortunate to get the win after allowing a host of good chances to their visitors (xG: DOR 1.42 - 2.75 BMG).

On the whole though, they too have been solid this season, having allowed 0.99 xGA per game prior to playing the best attacking team in the league (BMG), so they too don't give up many 'big' chances.

The Infogol model suggests the 1X2 market is priced up accurately, so we turn our attentions to the goals market. We calculate a 50% (2.00) chance of Under 2.5 goals and a tight game here, making the 2.24 (45%) the obvious value play.

Back to winning ways for Lille

Lille vs Bordeaux
Saturday, 16:30 GMT

Lille are winless in five games in all competitions following a fast start to the season, but were impressive against Valencia in the Champions League in midweek, with a draw the least they deserved based on xG (xG: LIL 2.04 - 0.59 VAL).

They were well beaten by Toulouse last weekend, but despite that, they still sit second in the xG table, with the second-best process in the league (1.56 xGF, 1.12 xGA per game).

Bordeaux sit up in sixth after a decent start to the season under Paulo Sosa, but were beaten by St Etienne last weekend, struggling offensively again.

While on the face of it everything is rosy, Les Girondins actually rank as only the 15th best team in Ligue 1 on xG, posing little attacking threat (0.91 xGF per game).

Lille have won four of their five home games, drawing the other, with an expected goal difference at home an impressive +6.50 xGD, so it is no surprise that Infogol sees a huge amount of value in backing another home win (63% - 1.59), with Lille available to be backed at 1.86 (54%) on the Exchange.

Atletico's struggles to continue

Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao
Saturday, 20:00 GMT

Atletico have been frustrated in recent weeks in La Liga, having drawn four of their last five league games, with three of those coming at the Wanda.

They are unfortunate not to be higher than fifth in the table, with their process actually impressive so far, but a lack of clinical finishing has cost them so far (eight goals, 14.43 xGF).

Defensively, they have unsurprisingly been excellent, and rank as the best defensive team in La Liga, allowing an average of just 0.88 xGA per game, so won't allow Bilbao to create much here.

Athletic Bilbao have also been a tough team to beat this season, but frustrating to watch, as they are nearly as solid as Atletico (0.95 xGA per game), but nowhere near as potent in attack (1.17 xGF per game).

They are a well-organised team, that are happy to sit in and frustrate an Atletico team that are struggling to get much going in attack, especially with João Félix out.

Infogol calculates a 50% (2.00) chance that Bilbao will avoid defeat here, suggesting Atletico have a 50% (2.00) chance of winning. The odds (1.80) suggest that Atleti have a 56% chance of winning, so taking them on is the value play here, either by laying them at 1.80 on the Exchange, or backing Bilbao or Draw at 11/10 on the Sportsbook.

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Infogol's 19/20 Euro P+L

19/20
Staked: 31pts
Returned: 18.26pts
P+L: -12.77pts

18/19
Staked: 102pts
Returned: 100.9pts
P+L: -1.1pts

Jake Osgathorpe,

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