Infogol Expected Goals Euro Acca: Back against Barca in 10/1 fourfold

Barcelona goalkeeper Marc-André ter Stegen
ter Stegen could be picking the ball out of his net again vs Getafe

Infogol's analyst is back with the best bets across Europe, using expected goals (xG) data to select a nicely priced weekend fourfold...

"The results are obviously poor, but the performances on the road are even more cause for concern, with Barca generating an average of just 0.64 xGF per game, while allowing 1.39 xGA per game, so they have serious issues on the road."

More away woes for Barca

Getafe vs Barcelona
Saturday, 15:00 GMT

Getafe have lost just the one game so far this season (against Atletico Madrid), drawing four and winning just once, but their performances of late have been fantastic, and they were extremely unfortunate not to get all three points against Valencia (xG: VAL 1.79 - 3.11 GET).

José Bordalás's side have picked up where they left off last season, a campaign in which they finished the season in the top six, and remain a really difficult team to play against, with their high energy and fighting attitude, so pose a serious threat to Barca.

The Catalonians have made a poor start to the season by their standards, especially away from home, but even in midweek at home to Villarreal, Ernesto Valverde's side were very underwhelming and actually fortunate to get all three points (xG: BAR 0.57 - 0.56 VIL).

Away from home they have been nothing short of shambolic, picking up just one point from trips to Athletic Bilbao and newly-promoted duo Osasuna and Granada.

The results are obviously poor, but the performances on the road are even more cause for concern, with Barca generating an average of just 0.64 xGF per game, while allowing 1.39 xGA per game, so they have serious issues on the road.

So, the last thing they would want would be a trip to a hostile environment in Madrid, and against a combative and physical team that are extremely dangerous and warrant respect.

Fortunately for us, Getafe haven't been given much respect here, with Barca priced up as 1.9 (52%) favourites, and Infogol suggests they should be priced closer to 2.7 (37%), so the obvious play here is to either back Getafe or draw at 1.91 on the Sportsbook, or lay Barcelona at 1.9 on the Exchange.

RB Leipzig to continue setting pace

RB Leipzig vs Schalke
Saturday, 17:30 GMT

RB Leipzig have started the season like a house on fire, winning four of their five Bundesliga games, and drawing against champions Bayern Munich, so currently occupy top spot.

Julian Nagelsmann's side haven't just been getting good results, their performances have been exceptional, averaging a huge 2.24 xGF per game, while allowing just 1.15 xGA, so are showing some serious title credentials.

Schalke have just started to get going under David Wagner after a slow start, winning their last three games by an aggregate scoreline of 10-2 against Hertha Berlin, Paderborn and Mainz.

However, during that time their aggregate xG scoreline reads 4.50 - 3.04, so not only have they over-performed in both attack and defence in that time, but this also shows us that their wins have been undeserved.

They are well behind RBL in both results and underlying numbers, and Infogol calculates a 64% chance of RBL getting the win (1.56), meaning there is value in backing the home side at 1.6 on the Exchange (62%).

Angers to stay hot on PSG's heels

Angers vs Amiens
Saturday, 19:00 GMT

Angers continued their excellent start to the season in midweek, beating Toulouse away from home 2-0, a fair result after another strong performance (xG: TOU 0.32 - 1.41 ANG).

That win pulled them level with leaders PSG in the table, with 15 points from seven games, and their only two defeats have come against Lyon and Lille, sides that finished third and second respectively last season.

Angers are allowing just 0.76 xGA per game so far this season, while generating an average of 1.28 xGF per game, so are the real deal, and shouldn't be taken lightly moving forward.

Amiens were unfortunate to lose 3-1 to Bordeaux in midweek (xG: AMI 1.01 - 0.61 BOR), but have performed poorly this season, especially in attack, as they have averaged just 0.83 xGF per game.

They are expected to find it difficult to create against this strong Angers backline, while the hosts have the firepower to break down Amiens, with Infogol suggesting backing the home side represents a good bet.

Atalanta to build on Roma win

Sassuolo vs Atalanta
Saturday, 19:45 GMT

Sassuolo have made an interesting start to the new campaign, losing all three of their away games so far this season, and rightly so, but have won both of their home matches thus far, beating Sampdoria and SPAL, though I'm expecting that record to come to an end here.

"I Neroverdi" have looked defensively vulnerable both home and away this season, allowing an average of 1.51 xGA per game, and in this game they come up against what was the best attacking team in the league last season, according to xG.

Atalanta have picked up where they left off, in the same vain of form that secured them a third place finish last season, and picked up a crucial three points away at Roma in midweek in a strong display (xG: ROM 2.05 - 2.39 ATA).

So far this term, Gian Piero Gasperini's side have generated an average of 1.97 xGF per game, so pose a serious attacking threat, with the likes of Duván Zapata, Alejandro Gómez and Josip Iličić continuing to link well.

Infogol suggests Atalanta have a 54% chance of winning here, which equates to odds of 1.85, meaning the 2.06 available (49%) represents good value, and should be backed.

The Infogol model calculates that this Sportsbook fourfold should be around 7/1, but it is available at 10/1 on the Sportsbook

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Infogol's 19/20 Euro P+L

19/20
Staked: 19pts
Returned: 9.35ts
P+L: -9.65pts

18/19
Staked: 102pts
Returned: 100.9pts
P+L: -1.1pts

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