Infogol Expected Goals Euro Acca: Back goals in Madrid in 12/1 fourfold

Diego Simeone Atletico Madrid manager
Diego Simeone can see his side score more goals vs Celta Vigo

Infogol's analyst is back with the best bets across Europe, using expected goals (xG) data to select a nicely priced weekend fourfold...

"Atleti were unfortunate to only draw with Juventus in the Champions League (xG: ATM 2.27 – 0.91 JUV), and they look a much more menacing attacking team this season, averaging a huge 1.88 xGF per game in La Liga this season, so will create good opportunities here."

Montpellier to take another scalp

Marseille vs Montpellier
Saturday, 16:30 GMT

Marseille started the season slowly with a defeat to Reims and a draw with Nantes, but have since won three on the spin.

However, a closer look at their underlying numbers shows how fortunate they have been in all three wins, being second best on xG twice and fortunate to edge a tight game against ST Etienne (xG: MAR 0.76 - 0.60 STE).

André Villas-Boas's side were extremely fortunate to beat Monaco last weekend (xG: MON 2.65 - 1.58 MAR), and a similar performance here would see a defeat.

Montpellier have made a solid start to the season, picking up seven points from five matches, but have been the better team in four of their five matches according to expected goals.

Defensively they have been solid, allowing only 0.94 xGA per game this season, so are extremely tough to break down, while generating 1.54 xGF per game in attack, so are a dangerous opponent.

Infogol calculates that Marseille have a 39% chance of winning here, giving Montpellier a 61% of getting something from the game, so the value play in this one is to back Montpellier or draw on the Sportsbook at 1.83, or laying Marseille at 2.08.

Werder to cause RBL problems

Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig
Saturday, 17:30 GMT

Werder Bremen started the season with back-to-back defeats, but bounced back with consecutive defeats against Augsburg and Union Berlin.

Their performances have been very impressive, and they have been unfortunate not to have won more games, with their attacking process very strong, averaging 1.90 xGF per game, so are extremely dangerous.

RB Leipzig dropped their first points of the season against Bayern Munich last weekend, though that game was a fair draw according to expected goals (xG: RBL 1.61 - 1.70 BAY), as they continue to perform at a high level.

However, there remain question marks over their defensive process, as they have allowed an average of 1.25 xGA per game, so could be found out sooner or later unless this process improves.

The Infogol model suggests RB Leipzig have only a 50% chance of winning this game, with the Betfair Exchange suggesting they have a 57% chance of getting the win, so opposing RBL is the play here, either with Werder Bremen or Draw on the Sportsbook at 2.0, or by laying RB Leipzig at 1.77 on the Exchange.

More goals at the WANDA

Atletico Madrid vs Celta Vigo
Saturday, 17:30 GMT

Atletico Madrid suffered their first defeat of the season last weekend against Real Sociedad, a fair result according to expected goals, as they conceded good chances for the first time this season (xG: SOC 2.54 - 1.40 ATM).

Atleti were unfortunate to only draw with Juventus in the Champions League (xG: ATM 2.27 - 0.91 JUV), and they look a much more menacing attacking team this season, averaging a huge 1.88 xGF per game in La Liga this season, so will create good opportunities here.

Celta Vigo suffered a 2-0 defeat at home to Granada last weekend, suffering thanks to having two players sent off in the first half, though they have looked exceptionally vulnerable so far this season (1.54 xGA per game).

They always offer an attacking threat though, especially on the counter attack, with the pace and trickiness of Iago Aspas, Santi Mina and Denis Suarez a dangerous proposition.

Infogol calculates a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals happening in this game (1.69), so the 2.08 on offer on the Exchange represents a great deal of value (48%).

Cagey derby affair in Milan

AC Milan vs Inter Milan
Saturday, 19:45 GMT

The Milan derby is the headline fixture in Serie A this week, as AC and Inter do battle, with both having begun the new season with a new manager.

AC Milan lost their season opener at Udinese 1-0, before back-to-back 1-0 wins over newly promoted duo Brescia and Verona, with low-scoring games clearly the norm under new manager Marco Giampaolo.

Milan have looked extremely solid defensively, allowing 0.71 xGA per game, and although this is their toughest game to date, another defensive-minded approach is expected here.

Antonio Conte's side have started the season with three wins, with Inter Milan leading Serie A after three games, and as you would expect from a Conte side, they have been tough to break down, allowing an impressive 0.49 xGA per game.

A cagey affair is expected at the San Siro between two defensively solid sides, and Milan derbies are always tight matches with so much at stake.

Infogol calculates a 61% chance (1.64) of under 2.5 goals, so the 1.75 available on the Betfair Exchange (57%) represents value.

The Infogol model calculates that this Sportsbook fourfold should be around 8.0, but it is available at 13.0 on the Sportsbook

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Infogol's 19/20 Euro P+L

Staked: 15pts
Returned: 5.6pts
P+L: -9.4pts

Staked: 102pts
Returned: 100.9pts
P+L: -1.1pts

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