Infogol Expected Goals Euro Acca: Back Frankfurt in 26/1 fourfold

Frankfurt fans celebrate
Frankfurt fans can celebrate another victory

Infogol's analyst is back with the best bets across Europe, using expected goals (xG) data to select a nicely priced weekend fourfold...

"Despite losing their three best attacking players in the Summer (Ante Rebić, Sébastien Haller and Luka Jović), Frankfurt have impressed in attack, generating an average of 1.54 xGF per game, with the likes of Bas Dost, André Silva and Gonçalo Paciência stepping up and posing a serious threat."

Frankfurt to round of good week with win

Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen
Sunday, 17:00 GMT

Frankfurt have made a steady start to the new Bundesliga season, sitting in mid-table after winning three of their first six matches, and are looking to round off a good week.

They impressed away at Union Berlin last weekend (xG: UNI 0.95 - 2.04 FRA) before picking up an important three points in the Europa League away at Vitória Guimarães (xG: VIT 0.69 - 1.49 FRA).

Despite losing their three best attacking players in the Summer (Ante Rebić, Sébastien Haller and Luka Jović), Frankfurt have impressed in attack, generating an average of 1.54 xGF per game, with the likes of Bas Dost, André Silva and Gonçalo Paciência stepping up and posing a serious threat.

Werder Bremen were very fortunate to get a point against Dortmund last weekend (xG: DOR 1.61 - 0.90 WER), but continue to look vulnerable defensively.

They have allowed 1.43 xGA per game this season and Frankfurt can take advantage in this game, and make it three wins in a week, with Infogol calculating a 52% (1.92) chance of a home win, the 2.22 (45%) available on the Exchange is good value.

Entertaining Derby d'Italia

Inter Milan vs Juventus
Sunday, 19:45 GMT

Inter Milan suffered their first defeat of the season in midweek, losing to Barcelona in the Champions League, but it was an impressive display from Antonio Conte's side.

They have started the Serie A season in fine form, winning all six of their league games, and rightly so after strong performances, but while they have created plenty of chances (1.76 xGF per game), they are still allowing chances (0.90 xGA per game), and have been fortunate to have conceded just 2 goals (5.40 xGA).

Juventus have also made a decent start to the season, and have dropped just two points in their opening six matches, but there remain question marks surrounding Maurizio Sarri's team, and whether or not they have improved.

The Old Lady sit second in the table, but rank as only the 8th best team according to expected goals, with Juve creating good chances as would be expected (1.56 xGF per game), but also look more vulnerable defensively under the ex-Chelsea manager (1.18 xGA per game).

These games tend to be cagey, as two of the best teams in Italy do battle, but this Derby d'Italia could be the opposite, as both of these sides are expected to play an open style of football, which could lead to goals.

Infogol calculates a 53% (1.89) chance of both teams scoring, which represents a small amount value, as BTTS can be backed at 1.93 (52%) on the Exchange.

Sevilla pose serious threat to Barca

Barcelona vs Sevilla
Sunday, 20:00 GMT

Barcelona look to have turned things around of late, and come into this game on the back of three successive wins, beating Villarreal, Getafe and Inter Milan, but have been fortunate in all three matches.

Draws would have been fairer results in both league matches against Villarreal (xG: BAR 0.57 - 0.56 VIL) and Getafe (xG: GET 1.41 - 1.52 BAR), and while they sit 4th in the league, they rate as only the seventh best team in La Liga.

Lionel Messi's return is a welcome one, but to my eye, he didn't look fully fit against Inter Milan, and defensively they have been vulnerable so far (1.12 xGA per game), so don't look as strong as their short price would suggest.

Sevilla have made a strong start under new manager Julen Lopetegui and sit on the same number of points as Barcelona ahead of this game.

They rank as the third best team in the league after seven games, with their underlying numbers excellent so far, as they rank as the best defensive team in the league (0.78 xGA per game).

Sevilla offer a great attacking threat also (1.45 xGF per game), and Infogol calculates a 53% (1.89) chance of Sevilla getting something from their trip to the Camp Nou, with Barcelona looking too short at 1.53 (65%, IG 47%), so laying the Spanish champions at 1.55 is the selection.

No fireworks in Le Derby

St Etienne vs Lyon
Sunday, 20:00 GMT

St Etienne have made a poor start to the campaign, and languish second from bottom of Ligue 1 despite a win over Nîmes, which was an exceptionally fortunate one (xG: NIM 2.00 - 0.76 STE).

Les Verts have found life very difficult this term, with underlying numbers of a relegation threatened team, and numbers that could ultimately cost Ghislain Printant (1.01 xGF, 1.48 xGA per game).

Lyon haven't performed that much better than their opponents this season, and are in fact just a point above their bitter rivals, winning just two of their eight games.

They were unfortunate to lose to Nantes last weekend (xG: NAN 1.21 - 0.51 LYO), but bounced back in the Champions League, beating RB Leipzig, so things are looking up.

However, their process is also extremely poor (1.05 xGF, 0.86 xGA per game), and those figures show just how tight their games are, with few chances at both ends the norm for Sylvinho's side.

Not only do we have two teams that are struggling to create chances, but this is a fierce derby in which neither side will want to lose, so few fireworks are expected.

Because of this, Infogol calculates a 50% (2.00) chance of under 2.5 goals, so the 2.52 (40%) available represents a great deal of value and should be backed.

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For more tips on European football, check out this week's episode of Football...Only Bettor, with Betfair columnists Kevin Hatchard, Andy Brassel and Jake Osgathorpe joining host Caroline Barker to preview all the weekend action

Infogol's 19/20 Euro P+L

Staked: 23pts
Returned: 11.41ts
P+L: -11.59pts

Staked: 102pts
Returned: 100.9pts
P+L: -1.1pts

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