Infogol's Weekend Euro Tips: Back Valencia to bring home 10/1 treble

Valencia manager Marcelino
Marcelino can lead Valencia to another win
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Infogol's analyst is back with the best bets across the European action, using expected goals (xG) data to select a nicely priced weekend treble...

"According to expected goals, Valencia have been the second-best team in the league this season, and had a lot of bad luck early on in the campaign, so it is no surprise to see an upturn in form for them, as they have started to get results they deserved."

Another tough game for Dortmund

Dortmund vs Stuttgart
Saturday, 14.30 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video

Dortmund have had a tough week, starting last weekend with defeat against Augsburg and finishing with a home defeat to Tottenham in the Champions League.

While they were unfortunate to lose to Augsburg (xG: AUG 0.96 - 2.79 DOR), they now find themselves level on points with Bayern Munich, and as second favourites to lift the Bundesliga title.

They have been the second-best team in the league, a long way behind Bayern according to expected goals, and have been defensively vulnerable in recent weeks, conceding an average of 1.34 xGA in their last five Bundesliga matches.

Stuttgart come into this game on the back of a 5-1 win over Hannover (xG: STU 2.61 - 0.17 HAN), a great performance that kept them in touching distance of Augsburg in 15th.

They have been very impressive in recent matches, especially in attack, as they have generated an average of 1.61 xGF per game, better than Dortmund in that time.

Given how potent both of these sides are in attack, backing both teams to score at a decent price is the selection.

Valencia the value

Girona vs Valencia
Sunday, 15:15 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video

Girona have won two and drawn the other of their last three matches, a run that his moved them eight points clear of the relegation zone, and back to safety.

They have deserved all of those seven points, rightly beating Real Madrid (xG: RMA 1.70 - 3.37 GIR) and Rayo Vallecano (xG: RAY 0.86 - 1.88 GIR), but both of these wins came away from home, and they have been the worst team in the division.

Valencia are unbeaten in eight La Liga games following a 2-0 win over Athletic Bilbao last weekend, as they closed the gap on the top six to just a point.

According to expected goals, Valencia have been the second-best team in the league this season, and had a lot of bad luck early on in the campaign, so it is no surprise to see an upturn in form for them, as they have started to get results they deserved.

Their process has been very impressive this season, averaging 1.71 xGF per game, and 1.13 xGA per game, so should prove too strong for Girona, and look great value to win here.

Lazio to continue good form

Fiorentina vs Lazio
Sunday, 19:30 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video

Fiorentina have won just one of their last five Serie A matches following a 3-1 defeat at Atalanta, as their top six hopes have taken a turn for the worse, with them now five points from sixth placed Lazio - who they face in this game.

La Viola have been very poor of late according to expected goals, generating an average of just 1.29 xGF per game while allowing 1.63 xGA in their last five, so it's no surprise to see them fall down the table.

Lazio come into this on the back of a 3-0 win in the Rome derby last weekend (xG: LAZ 1.74 - 1.21 ROM), their third win in four league games to move up to sixth in the league table.

Their performances in recent weeks has been very strong, especially in defence, as they have kept three clean-sheets in four, conceding an average of just 0.98 xGA per game.

Lazio will be tough to break down here, and given the attacking threat that they possess (1.60 xGF per game), they can take advantage of an out of sorts Fiorentina side to get another win here.

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Infogol's 2018/19 Euro P+L

Staked: 72pts
Returned: 68.16pts
P+L: -3.84pts

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