European Football Tips: Back Villarreal and Inter Milan to bring home 10/1 treble

Villarreal players celebrate
Villarreal can celebrate another win

Infogol's analyst is back with the best bets across the European action, using expected goals (xG) data to select a nicely priced weekend treble...

"Villarreal have pulled themselves out of the relegation zone following three wins in their last five La Liga games, including an impressive win over fellow strugglers Rayo Vallecano last time out (xG: VIL 2.67 – 0.20 RAY). Their process has improved since changing managers in January, generating an average of 1.64 xGF per game since Javier Calleja was re-appointed."

More woes for Celta

Celta Vigo vs Villarreal
Saturday, 17:30 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video

Celta Vigo are in serious trouble at the bottom of the La Liga table, as they are four points from safety following a fifth defeat in six matches before the international break.

They have failed to score in any of their last four matches, and have averaged a woeful 0.49 xGF in those games, with the Infogol model giving them a 66% chance of going down.

Celta will be hoping that Iago Aspas' return to fitness can inspire them to pick up results, but his return isn't expected to have much of an impact here.

Villarreal have pulled themselves out of the relegation zone following three wins in their last five La Liga games, including an impressive win over fellow strugglers Rayo Vallecano last time out (xG: VIL 2.67 - 0.20 RAY).

Their process has improved since changing managers in January, generating an average of 1.64 xGF per game since Javier Calleja was re-appointed.

The Yellow Submarine are expected to prove too strong for their relegation threatened rivals, and the visitors represent great value to get the three points here.

Goals in Leipzig

RB Leipzig vs Hertha Berlin
Saturday, 17:30 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video

Over in Germany, RB Leipzig moved up to third in the table before the break thanks to a deserved 1-0 win over struggling Schalke (xG: RBL 1.54 - 1.00 SCH), a win that increased their chances of a top four finish to 86%.

That win extended their unbeaten league run to eight matches, and have been very impressive in that time, as they have in fact been the second-best team in the Bundesliga this season according to expected goals, and the second best attacking team (1.78 xGF per game).

After a fast start to the season, Hertha Berlin have fallen down to 10th place in the Bundesliga, with a run of one win in five games contributing to that.

They were very unfortunate to lose to Dortmund last time out, another game in which they created plenty of good chances (xG: HER 1.93 - 1.92 DOR).

Hertha have generated 1.37 xGF per game this season, and can contribute to an entertaining game here in which both teams hit the net.

Inter to win again

Inter Milan vs Lazio
Sunday, 19:30 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video

One of the big games in Italy this weekend sees third placed Inter Milan take on sixth place Lazio, with eight points separating them and the Rome based side having a game in hand on their rivals.

Inter went into the International break on the back of successive victories over lowly SPAL (xG: INT 0.77 - 0.17 SPA) and stadium-sharing rivals AC Milan (xG: ACM 1.29 - 2.49 INT), both of which were fully deserved after impressive performances.

They have been the third best team this season according to expected goals, averaging 1.60 xGF per game and 1.04 xGA per game, and clearly haven't missed star striker Mauro Icardi - who has been out 'injured' of late - scoring 11 times in their last five matches.

Lazio too come into this game in good form, winning four of their last six matches, losing just once, but their process has got worse since the turn of the year.

lazio 6 game rolling xG infogol.jpg

As can be seen in the above graphic, their xGF average has decreased and their xGA average has increased of late, suggesting that their performances are getting worse.

With that in mind, the price of Inter Milan makes plenty of appeal against this Lazio team, and a home win is selected.

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