Infogol's Weekend Euro Tips: Back Huesca to bring home 8/1 treble
Infogol's analyst is back with the best bets across the European action, using expected goals (xG) data to select a nicely priced weekend treble...
"Though they sit bottom of the table currently, according to expected goals, Huesca have in fact been the 11th best team in the league, being very unfortunate so far this season."
Survival boost for Huesca
Huesca vs Alaves
Saturday, 12:00 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video
Huesca have given themselves a great chance of surviving in La Liga this season following a run of three wins and a draw in their last six matches.
Though they sit bottom of the table currently, according to expected goals, Huesca have in fact been the 11th best team in the league, being very unfortunate so far this season.
They have generated an average of 1.44 xGF per game this season, the eighth best attacking process in the league, so will pose a serious threat to Alaves here.
Alaves come into this game in great form, unbeaten in five matches, as they aim to cause an upset and finish in the top six this season.
They currently have only a two-point cushion, but are very fortunate to be so high in the table, having been only the 15th best team, with a process inferior to that of Huesca.
With that in mind, chancing a home win at a value price is the selection here.
Hertha to dent Dortmund title hopes
Hertha Berlin vs Dortmund
Saturday, 17:30 GMT
Live on BT Sport and Betfair Live Video
Hertha Berlin have slipped down to 10th in the table following a run of just three wins in eleven league games, though their performances of late have been much more promising.
They have been the better team according to expected goals in five of their last six matches - the only game that they were second best coming against Bayern Munich - conceding an average of just 0.86 xGA per game in that time.
Dortmund got their second league win in six games thanks to a 3-1 win over Stuttgart last time out, though they once again conceded good chances in matches.
In fact, their last six matches have seen them concede an average of 1.24 xGA per game, a vulnerability which is the main reason why they have been caught by Bayern Munich.
They are expected to find it difficult to break down this stubborn Hertha Berlin side, and it is the home team that are fancied to get something in the German capital.
Another entertaining Atalanta game
Atalanta vs Chievo
Sunday, 14:00 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video
Atalanta are in good form coming into this game, having won six of their last 10 Serie A matches, as they sit just six points off the top four.
According to expected goals, they have been the fourth best team in the league this season, and create a host of chances in matches (1.78 xGF per game), but do offer opponents chances also (1.18 xGA per game) - in fact they haven't kept a clean sheet in five games.
Chievo remain rooted to the foot of the table following a deserved 2-1 defeat to AC Milan last weekend, yet another defeat that leaves them 12 points from safety.
They are winless in eight matches, but haven't played as badly as results suggest, especially in attack, as they have generated an average of 1.38 xGF per game in that time.
Given both teams generate decent chances in matches on a regular basis, backing both teams to score at odds against represents good value.
Infogol's 2018/19 Euro P+L
This weekend's Infogol Euro acca pays around 8/1 (Sportsbook)