Infogol's Weekend Euro Tips: Back Eibar and Sampdoria to bring home 9/1 treble

Sergi Enrich celebrates for Eibar
Eibar can heap more misery on Celta

Infogol's analyst is back with their best bets across the European action, using expected goals (xG) data to select a nicely priced Sunday treble...

"Though they sit 11th in the La Liga table, they have in fact been the fifth best team, with a very solid process, averaging an impressive 1.65 xGF per game, so can cause Celta plenty of problems here."

Eibar to add to Celta's woes

Eibar vs Celta Vigo
Sunday, 11:00 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video

Eibar come into this game with just one win in five matches following a Basque derby defeat against Athletic Bilbao, but their results don't give a fair representation of their performances.

Though they sit 11th in the La Liga table, they have in fact been the fifth best team, with a very solid process, averaging an impressive 1.65 xGF per game, so can cause Celta plenty of problems here.

It is a surprise to many that Celta Vigo are in a relegation battle, but not Infogol, as according to expected goals they have been the third worst team in the league.

They are desperate for points, as they hover just two points clear of the drop-zone, and were very fortunate to get a draw at Alaves last weekend (xG: ALA 1.70 - 0.54 CEL), which was just their fourth point from a possible 27.

With Celta conceding a host of chances in matches (1.64 xGA per game), backing the impressive home side to win at a decent price is the selection.

Samp value to win

SPAL vs Sampdoria
Sunday, 14:00 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video

SPAL are winless in four matches following a 1-1 draw with Sassuolo last time out, as they remain just five points above the relegation zone.

According to xG, they sit where they deserve to, with their main issues this season coming in attack, as they have averaged just 1.10 xGF per game, so may struggle to cause Sampdoria issues here.

Sampdoria themselves sit midtable, also a fair representation of their performances to date, that's after a 1-0 win over Cagliari - a game in which they could have won by a couple more (xG: SAM 2.95 - 0.71 CAG).

Their performances have been impressive despite them having won just two of their last seven matches, as they have generated an average of 1.74 xGF per game in those seven matches.

If they continue to create chances at the same rate, they should have no problem against this SPAL team, and represent good value to get the win.

Few goals in relegation battle

Stuttgart vs Hannover
Sunday, 14:30 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video

A huge game in the Bundesliga, as second from bottom Hannover travel to face the team directly above them, Stuttgart, with both desperate for points.

Stuttgart are winless in eight league games following a 1-1 draw away at Werder Bremen last time out, a game in which they were fortunate to get something from (xG: WER 1.16 - 0.61 STU).

They rightly sit near the bottom of the table, according to xG, having huge issues in attack, averaging just 1.13 xGF per game this season, so don't create many chances in matches.

Hannover have lost six of their last seven Bundesliga matches after a 3-0 defeat at home to Frankfurt last time out, a deserved result, and yet another game in which they struggled in attack (xG: HAN 0.47 - 2.18 FRA).

In fact, they have been the second worst attacking team in the league, generating an average of just 1.00 xGF per game, so they too are very blunt in attack.

With both teams struggling to create good chances on a regular basis, backing under 2.5 goals at a decent price represents good value.

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Infogol's 2018/19 Euro P+L

Staked: 69pts
Returned: 62.71pts
P+L: -6.29pts

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