Infogol's Weekend Euro Tips: Back Getafe and Genoa to win
The Infogol experts return with a look at the European action, using expected goals (xG) data to select this weekend's best treble...
"Getafe are deserving of being as high in the table as they currently are, creating good chances and conceding few. With Levante’s defensive weaknesses are expected to be found out here, with Getafe representing good value to get the win here."
Getafe to get the win
Getafe vs Levante
Live on Betfair Live Video
Getafe have made a steady start to the season, losing just two of their seven league games.
A draw with Celta Vigo in their last match was the least they deserved following another good display, in which they created the better of the chances (xG: CEL 0.50 - 1.15 GET).
They are deserving of being as high in the table as they currently are, creating good chances and conceding few.
Levante ended a five-match winless run with victory over Alaves, a victory which was fully deserved according to expected goals (xG: LEV 1.72 - 0.75 ALA).
They have though, been very poor defensively so far this season, averaging a league high 2.10 xGA per game, something that they really need to improve on.
Levante's defensive weaknesses are expected to be found out here, with Getafe representing good value to get the win here.
Genoa to continue home dominance
Genoa vs Parma
Live on Eleven Sports and Betfair Live Video
Genoa have made a promising start to the season having won four of their six league games so far, beating Frosinone in comfortable fashion last time out.
They have won all three of their home matches in an easy manner, creating good chances in the process, and are rightly favorites to win at home again.
Parma's return to the top flight has started very well, winning three of their seven matches.
Though they sit 10th in the table, they have in fact been the fourth worst team in the league this season, so improvements are needed, especially in defence where they are conceding an average of 1.67 xGA per game.
Genoa are the odds-on favourites to win this game, and even so look great value to get the three points against a vulnerable Parma defence.
Nürnberg to pose problems for RBL
RB Leipzig vs Nürnberg
Live on BT Sport and Betfair Live Video
Leipzig have made a very good start to the season and are unbeaten in their last five games, including victories over Hannover, Stuttgart and Hoffenheim.
They are a very potent attacking team, averaging a league high 2.14 xGF per game, but have shown frailties in defence.
Ralf Rangnick's side are conceding an average of 1.56 xGA per game, something they will have to improve on if they are to finish in the top four this season.
Nürnberg shouldn't be underestimated in this match, and come into the game on the back of a comfortable 3-0 win over Fortuna Düsseldorf (xG: NUR 2.15 - 1.01 DUS).
According to expected goals, Nürnberg have been the fifth best team in the league so far this season, and have an expected goal difference of 1.92 xG, so are doing a lot right this campaign.
They have the capabilities to get something from this game, and backing them to do so represents great value at 9/5.
Infogol's 2018/19 Euro P+L
This weekend's Infogol Euro acca pays around 8/1 (Sportsbook)