We're kicking off a new week in southern Germany, and Kevin Hatchard believes Werder Bremen will avoid a damaging and costly relegation.
"Since the restart, Werder have won at Freiburg, Schalke and Paderborn, so they've shown they can win on the road under huge pressure."
Top-flight team to secure survival
Heidenheim v Werder Bremen
Monday 06 July, 19:30
Live on BT Sport and Betfair Live Video
Portuguese pain for our dear Tobias yesterday, as Gil Vicente's 1-0 win over Rio Ave stubbornly refused to honour his BTTS bet. To add insult to injury, Rio Ave played against ten men for most of the second half. Not to worry though, TG still had a profitable week.
We hope to do the same with our seven-day stint, and we'll start our journey in southern Germany, because Heidenheim are up against Werder Bremen in the second leg of the Bundesliga's relegation play-off. The first game ended goalless, so it's all to play for, with just one seat left at German football's top table.
Heidenheim were diligent and determined on Thursday in the first leg, and could have nicked a win late on had centre-back Timo Beermann hit the target with a late header. FCH's failure to grab an away goal could prove costly, as while their home record is strong, Bundesliga side Bremen are much stronger on their travels than they are at the Weserstadion.
Werder have had a bizarre, painful season under likeable and well-respected coach Florian Kohfeldt, but the fact they are in this play-off is testament to their grit and determination. The northern giants seemed destined for the drop, but they won four of their final eight league matches to jump out of the bottom two in the nick of time. Three of those four victories came on the road, and no-one outside the top seven racked up more away wins than Werder. Even without fans in stadiums, Werder have continued to play with more freedom and belief on their travels than they have by the banks of the river Weser.
Heidenheim are looking to win promotion to the top flight for the first time in their history, and inspirational coach Frank Schmidt could be rewarded for a 13-year stint as coach that has included three promotions already. FCH have won their last five home matches, and haven't lost at the Voith Arena since November. Star striker Tim Kleindienst scored 13 of his 14 league goals on home soil.
Werder are trading at [2.04] to win, and even without suspended skipper Niklas Moisander, I think that's a decent price. Werder restricted Heidenheim to just a handful of bright moments on Thursday, and I expect them to create more in attack tonight. Werder have recently won at Freiburg, Schalke and Paderborn, and all of those matches were high-pressure games. With the season on the line on Matchday 34, Werder delivered one of their best attacking displays of the campaign as they crushed Köln 6-1. If they managed all of those away wins in the top flight, why can't they win at Heidenheim?
Heidenheim deserve respect, but I believe Werder will finally show their quality, and will get the win that will avoid relegation.
Points Staked: 96
Points Returned: 83.08
P/L: -12.92 points
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Back Werder Bremen to win at [2.04]