We're heading to Germany, and Kev thinks the outsiders Belarus can make life tough for Jogi Loew's side.
"Belarus have sharpened up considerably since losing 4-0 in the Netherlands at the start of the campaign, and I don't entirely trust Germany's defending."
Hosts to win, but don't expect a show
Germany v Belarus
Saturday 16 November, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
As victories for the Greeks go, it was hardly the Battle of Marathon, but a 1-0 win against Armenia yesterday was enough to worsen what's already been an annoying week.
We look for succour in Germany, because Die Mannschaft are up against Belarus, and I think the visitors may prove to be gritty and determined opponents.
Germany have pretty much qualified for next year's European Championship finals, but they haven't really sparkled in doing so. Yes, they have won all bar one of their matches (a dreadful performance in Hamburg as they lost 4-2 to the Netherlands) but they haven't been handing out thrashings left, right and centre in what is a rather weak group. Only one of their wins has been by more three goals, an 8-0 shredding of Estonia.
There are still concerns about the team's defending, and the loss of man mountain Niklas Sule to knee ligament damage won't help in that regard. Bundestrainer Joachim Loew is also without Kai Havertz and Marco Reus because of injury.
Belarus, as expected, got nowhere near qualification. However, they haven't embarrassed themselves. Since they were smacked 4-0 in the Netherlands at the start of the campaign, they haven't lost any of their matches by more than two goals, and they actually played pretty well last time out in a 2-1 home defeat to the Dutch. If you look at their last 15 away games in all competitions, they have only lost by more than two goals twice.
Given Germany's defensive issues, and the fact they have already qualified and don't have to push too hard in the midst of a punishing domestic season, I'm happy to give Belarus a three-goal head-start here on the Asian Handicap. If Germany win by three, your stake is returned, but a two-goal defeat or better sees you nail down an odds-against winner.
Points Staked: 157
Points Returned: 144.5
P/L: -12.5 points
Back Belarus +3.0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.0811/10