The week begins in Italy for Paul Robinson as he thinks that the goals will flow when Genoa take on Torino.
"It’s the goal statistics that interest me today though and with 49 scored and 40 conceded, the host’s fixtures are averaging 2.62 goals each time."
Genoa v Torino
Monday May 11, 19:45 BST
Live on ESPN
With just a five point gap to the European places and a game in hand, Genoa can still just about make it into Europe next season. They will almost certainly need to win all of their remaining matches and have other results go their way, but while they are still in with a chance, they won't give up.
Torino on the other hand are a further two points behind and that will likely prove a little too much to overcome. They were beaten at home by Empoli last week and have now won just one of their five most recent outings.
It's the goal statistics that interest me today though and with 49 scored and 40 conceded, the host's fixtures are averaging 2.62 goals each time. A total of 15 of their 34 have seen under 2.5 layers collect and that includes three of their last four.
Giampiero Ventura's side don't have quite as high a total - their matches are averaging 2.26 goals per 90 minutes - but 14 of their 34 have still had three or more scored and that includes three of their last five on the road.
I think we will be in for a decent, attacking game this evening, so with under 2.5 goals trading at around the 1.9620/21 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Genoa v Torino @ 1.9620/21
2015 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 129 pts
Returned: 102.72 pts
P/L: - 26.28 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)