Freiburg v Stuttgart
Friday March 17, 19:30
Live on Betfair Live Video
Hosts to edge derby clash
CSKA Moscow took us by surprise last night, and they shocked Lyon too. The Russian side's 3-2 win put them through to the Europa League quarter-finals, ended the French team's hopes of playing the final at their own stadium, and gave us our first losing bet of the week. That's a busy evening.
We'll head over the border to southern Germany now, for a picturesque trip to the Black Forest. If you're well behaved, I'll treat you to the traditional coffee and cake (I'd be so fat if I lived there), and then we're off to Freiburg against Stuttgart in the Bundesliga.
Freiburg boss Christian Streich continues to turn water into wine, keeping the club with the smallest budget clear of relegation trouble. There is still work to be done, but SCF are currently five points clear of the bottom three, and 12 points away from the automatic relegation zone. The Breisgau-Brasilianer have lost just two of their last 14 games in the league.
Stuttgart have shocked German football by taking off under new coach Tayfun Korkut. Almost every pundit (including...ahem...me) derided his hiring as a strange move, given his modest coaching record. However, to be fair to the former Hannover and Leverkusen boss, he has done a sterling job. VfB are pretty much safe from relegation now, and there is even talk of a push for European qualification.
This is a derby clash, and Freiburg's fans will be as raucous as ever. The Schwarzwaldstadion is a tough place for visiting sides - only Bayern and Schalke have won there this season, and Streich's men have let in just 11 goals at home all season. Four of those came against Bayern.
With the Match Odds market pretty evenly split, I'll back the hosts. Their home record is strong, their need is greater, and Stuttgart haven't been an impressive on the road as they have been at home.