Freiburg v Augsburg
Wednesday 28 October, 18:00
Wolfsburg 1 Bayern Munich 3 last night. Bayern were at their very best in the opening exchanges, and they blew away a team that had only lost two of their last 38 home games. We doff our caps, and grit our teeth.
We're staying in Germany, and heading for the Black Forest to take in another DFB Cup tie. Freiburg were relegated last season, but are on course to bounce straight back. SCF sit proudly atop the second division table, having lost just two of their first 12 games. They have by far the best attacking record in the division, having whacked in 27 goals in just 12 games.
Freiburg nearly survived the drop last season courtesy of the goals scored by Nils Petersen, and they did well to hang onto him when they were demoted. Having seen his career stall at Werder Bremen, Petersen has flourished in Freiburg, and has scored six goals in his last eight appearances.
Augsburg come to town licking their wounds after a 5-1 thumping at Borussia Dortmund that left them rooted to the foot of the Bundesliga table. It's been a shocking fall from grace for a team that finished fifth last season, and most surprising of all has been the decline of the team's defending. A side that conceded a respectable 43 goals in the Bundesliga last season has already leaked 20 in ten league games.
Freiburg have all the momentum, and are rightly favourites to win at 2.47/5, but Augsburg do still have good players who are capable of turning things around. The bet that stands out to me is backing Over 2.5 Goals at 2.01/1. There have been at least two goals in each of the teams' last six meetings, and in Freiburg's six home matches this term, there have been a staggering 31 goals.
Augsburg have kept just one clean sheet away from home all season, but they have scored in every single road match they've played, while in-form Freiburg are scoring an average of more than three goals per game at the Schwarzwald Stadion.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.01/1