Fortuna Sittard v De Graafschap
Monday 12 March, 19:00
Fortuna to take another step towards the big time
Red Bull had their wings clipped yesterday, as the Austrian league leaders from Salzburg were held to a 2-2 draw at Mattersburg. That landed our Over 2.5 Goals bet and ensured a profitable week.
Tobias fans, don't worry, he'll be back next week, and you only have to put up with me for seven more days. We'll head to the Netherlands now, because Fortuna Sittard hope to take another step towards promotion as they face De Graafschap.
The drama that has unfolded at Fortuna Sittard has been fascinating to watch. Former Ajax midfielder Sunday Oliseh had done a terrific job last season in leading the club away from the dropzone, avoiding demotion to the third tier.
Oliseh also made a stunning start to this campaign, with Fortuna establishing themselves as genuine promotion contenders. However, the Nigerian hasn't been afraid to ruffle feathers. One of the first things he did was to promote youngsters in place of complacent veterans, but ultimately that single-mindedness and self-belief saw his relationship with the club's capricious owner Isitan Gun break down. Oliseh was replaced by Claudio Braga.
Despite that managerial mess, Fortuna are still doing well. They have put together a four-match unbeaten run, and have won their last two games, scoring three goals in each of those victories. At home they have an exceptional record, having won 10 of their 14 games on home soil.
De Graafschap are only two points outside the playoff zone at present, but they lost 1-0 at home to Dordrecht last time out, and they were recently bashed 5-2 at Emmen. They have lost four of their last six on the road, and they've leaked 14 goals in those six matches.
I'll back the hosts with a bit of insurance.