Mike Holden on the EFL: Irresistible Stags can kick-on with Flitcroft

Mike Holden
06 March 2018

Danny Rose is one of three Mansfield players with prior connections to new boss David Flitcroft

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Steve Evans dropped a bombshell when he walked out on Mansfield last week but the Stags have made a shrewd appointment in David Flitcroft and they should be too strong for fading Lincoln...

"The former Bury boss ticks almost every conceivable box you want in a successor given the scenario Mansfield were presented with. He has a League Two promotion on his CV with the Shakers three years ago and he knows the division inside-out this time around too. Indeed, 11 of Mansfield's remaining 12 games are fixtures that Flitcroft has already played with Swindon."

Stags can maintain their promotion charge

Mansfield v Lincoln
League Two, Tuesday 19:45

In a moment of adversity comes opportunity. That was evidently the mantra for Mansfield last week because they responded brilliantly to the bombshell that Steve Evans was walking away from the thick of a promotion battle by appointing David Flitcroft within 48 hours.

The former Bury boss ticks almost every conceivable box you want in a successor given the scenario Mansfield were presented with. He has a League Two promotion on his CV with the Shakers three years ago and he knows the division inside-out this time around too. Indeed, 11 of Mansfield's remaining 12 games are fixtures that Flitcroft has already played with Swindon.

Furthermore, he was doing rather well with the Robins having overcome a sticky start on the back of relegation but his switch to Field Mill instantly destabilises the Wiltshire club and could potentially cut them out of the play-off equation, thus strengthening the Stags' position at a stroke.

Now he inherits a stronger squad that boasts more individual quality. He has two strong players in virtually every position with the options to chop and change formations for any given challenge.

Three of those players - Rhys Bennett, Jacob Mellis and Danny Rose - already have close ties to Flitcroft stretching back five or six years, and their influence should ensure the dressing room is immediately onside and ready to crack on with little interruption.

Evans has left the Stags in great shape. They top the shot data charts over the past 16 rounds with a 63% shot ratio, leading the way by a significant margin since the turn of the year. Quite simply, they are the best team in the division on current form and meet Lincoln at a time when their underlying numbers have dropped off a cliff.

The Imps fancied themselves as promotion contenders before Christmas but their challenge has faded over the past couple of months with only two wins in 11 league outings in 2018. The prospect of a first-ever Wembley final in the Checkatrade Trophy, it seems, has completely turned their heads.

Manager Danny Cowley was furious after their last outing, labelling the 4-1 home defeat to Crewe "a disgrace" before going on to say: "I've been a manager for 600 games and, pound for pound, that's the worst I've ever seen one of my teams play. I'm a bit shellshocked to be honest."

So a big reaction is a possibility but having thrown all that frustrated energy into the build-up to Saturday's trip to Coventry, which was then called off, it's now equally possible that edge might have subsided somewhat. Either way, Mansfield have the bit between their teeth and they should be too strong.

Recommended Bets:
1pt Mansfield to beat Lincoln at 2.305/4

Size of the task too big for Dale

Walsall v Rochdale
League One, Tuesday 19:45

It's back to the harsh realities of a League One relegation battle for Rochdale after their spell of escapism in the FA Cup and things are looking too clever for Keith Hill's talented side. The Lancashire minnows are nowhere near the worst team in the division but they simply aren't cut out for the slog they now find themselves in.

Less than a week ago, they were playing without a care in the world at Wembley, showing flashes of technical excellence in a free-spirited first half display that did justice to the stage. But that's what Dale look like when the situation enables them to express themselves and play off their instincts.

By stark contrast, their league campaign has been a catalogue of errors and we shouldn't bank on it suddenly being any different now they're operating with so little margin for error. It doesn't matter how many games in hand you have, 12 points is a long way from safety.

In order to survive, they probably need as many points from the last 16 games as they could muster in the opening 30 but they are not a team to be backed at skinny prices at this point. The market seems to have been anticipating a turnaround for several weeks now but Dale have persistently come up short of their data.

And there's very little evidence in the respective home and away records to justify near-parity in the market here. Walsall have won nine out of 16 matches against teams currently below them in the table - W5 D1 L1 at home - while Rochdale have picked up just eight points from 17 away matches all season.

The Saddlers romped to victory at Southend (3-0) at the weekend and the early market-makers might be barking up the wrong tree if they think fatigue will be an issue after Dale's game on the same day with Plymouth was postponed. Jon Whitney's men have been setting a decent standard of late. There's no way this should be an each-of-two encounter at the Bescot.

Recommended Bet:
1pt Walsall to beat Rochdale at 2.8415/8

Fulham to make it nine straight at home

Fulham v Sheffield United
Championship, Tuesday 19:45

When these two sides met in the reverse fixture at Bramall Lane in late November, Sheffield United were second and Fulham were 16 points further back in 17th. What followed was a crazy 5-4 success for the visitors and perhaps a dawning realisation for the Blades - despite two late goals that closed the deficit - that their promotion push wasn't destined to last.

Now the Cottagers are seven points clear, having picked up 42 points from the last available 54, while United have only managed five wins in their last 17 attempts. Those bear statistics alone make a pretty solid case for backing the home win at nearly even money.

When you scratch beneath the surface and analyse the recent performance data of both sides, it becomes only more compelling. With a shot shot ratio of greater than 70% over 16 matches, Fulham are looking irresistible. They're simply blowing most teams away and playing to an even higher standard now than they were 12 months ago.

In the past 17 days, Slavisa Jokanovic's men have been up against four of the top six and taken 10 points. They've posted thoroughly convincing triumphs over Aston Villa and Wolves, stretching their run of consecutive home wins to eight, while another statement followed at the weekend as they raced into a 2-0 lead at Derby, eventually winning 2-1.

By contrast, Chris Wilder seems a bit fed up with the way United's season has gone. To most outsiders, that might sound bizarre - the Blades are just two points off a play-off place with a game in hand, after all - but momentum and relentlessness are the big buzzwords in Wilder's vocabulary and his team have been displaying neither of late.

Recommended Bet:
1pt Fulham to beat Sheffield United at 1.9720/21

Mike Holden Profit/Loss 2017-18

Staked: 114 pts
Returned: 88.30 pts
P/L: -25.70 pts

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