Mike Holden on the EFL: Stanley can seal the deal late on

Accrington striker Billy Kee
One goal could be enough for Accrington to clinch promotion against Yeovil
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Accrington had to suspend their League Two promotion party against Exeter at the weekend but it's only a matter of time and the Reds can edge over the line at the second time of asking against Yeovil...

"Accrington have scored the first goal in 13 of their last 18 matches and picked up maximum points every time, during which period they've only dropped seven points from a possible 54 when they've been unable to fully recover from falling behind to Crawley (1-2), Barnet (1-1) and the Grecians."

Patience key for Coleman's men

Accrington v Yeovil
League Two, Tuesday 19:45

The champagne was left on ice at the Wham Stadium on Saturday as League Two leaders Accrington were held to a 1-1 draw by fourth-placed Exeter. But promotion is only a matter of time for John Coleman's men and the celebrations can begin tonight with victory over lowly Yeovil.

However, don't expect the Glovers to just roll over. They held Wycombe for 79 minutes in a tight encounter at Huish Park last time out, a game that produced just 0.43 expected goals - the lowest recorded figure in the EFL this season - and they could do a similar job here.

Darren Way's men eventually went down 1-0, Randell Williams netting for the Chairboys with their first shot on target to deny Yeovil an eighth clean sheet in the last 13 league outings, and both managers were quick to admit afterwards that the result was harsh on the hosts.

But gritty displays against the better teams in the division are nothing new for the Somerset club. Their record in 11 matches against the top seven reads a respectable W4 D3 L4, which includes a 3-2 success in the reverse fixture against Stanley eight months ago.

Accrington have scored the first goal in 13 of their last 18 matches and picked up maximum points every time, during which period they've only dropped seven points from a possible 54 when they've been unable to fully recover from falling behind to Crawley (1-2), Barnet (1-1) and the Grecians.

So Coleman will surely be emphasising patience and the significance of breaking the deadlock, which points towards a spot of value in the Draw/Accrington half time/full time bet at [4.70].

Meanwhile, six of Stanley's last eight wins have landed the 1-0 correct score, so there's obvious mileage in the [7.60] available on them repeating that particular trick once again.


Pompey can edge scrappy encounter

Bradford v Portsmouth
League One, Tuesday 19:45

Simon Grayson got the reaction he wanted from his beleaguered Bradford side against high-flying Shrewsbury last Thursday, as they held the promotion-chasing visitors to a 0-0 draw in front of the television cameras in what easily their best home performance since the turn of the year.

Grayson made five changes to the team that was walloped 5-0 by Blackpool the weekend before, and stated afterwards: "All they've done is the basic requirements that a manager wants and a player should do every time they go out on that pitch. Work hard, be hard to beat and win your individual battles."

But the former Preston boss is fighting a losing battle in his attempts to salvage anything worthwhile from this season and while we should expect the Bantams to show more or less the same level of endeavour, the inner desire to go the extra mile and keep a clean sheet might be absent with fewer observers looking on.

So opportunity knocks for play-off chasing Portsmouth because there's no hiding the fact that Bradford have been comfortably the worst team in the division over the past three months, their shot ratio during that timeframe resting at an abysmal 33 per cent.

Pompey aren't exactly hung-ho under Kenny Jackett but there's an understanding that draws are no use in a chase between five teams for two remaining play-off berths. The Hampshire club might have considered a 0-0 acceptable in Saturday's six-pointer with Plymouth, but the same outcome at Valley Parade would undoubtedly be a blow to their top-six hopes.

So expect the visitors to be measured but ready to take their first big opportunity that comes along, after which they should be able to close out in relative comfort. Based on performance data alone, the [2.32] available on the away win is a gimme and the 0-1 correct score is the most likely way for them to achieve that end at attractive odds of [7.60].


Mike Holden Profit/Loss 2017-18

Staked: 138 pts
Returned: 94.65 pts
P/L: -43.35 pts

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