Gary Rowett's Derby have just moved into an automatic promotion spot in the Championship and are undefeated in nine away matches, while Manchester United continue to look jaded at the top end of the Premier League despite their impressive 2-0 win over Everton in midweek. This has banana skin written all over it.
Derby average just 48.5% possession this season, reflecting their ability to play on the counter-attack via the pinpoint long balls of Tom Huddlestone and the pace of their front four - which is precisely the weapon they'll use at Old Trafford. Not only will Rowett play an aggressive pressing match that ruffles the feathers of Jose Mourinho's side, but he will also ensure that Huddlestone quickly releases the ball into the huge spaces behind the United defence.
Matej Vydra (14 goals this season) and Sam Winnall (who netted a brace in his last outing) will use their pace to trouble the United defence. Backed up by the tenacity of Johnny Russell and Andreas Weimann on the flanks (who will surely give improvised right-back Victor Lindelof a run for his money), it is easy to envisage Derby breaking through the lines and stealing a shock result.
Derby to win is available at 12/1, and to draw is priced at 9/2
Man City's 3-0 victory over Burnley back in October was one of just two matches this season in which Sean Dyche's side conceded more than two goals, but the scenario is very different this time around. Pep Guardiola is highly likely to rest some of his star players after the gruelling winter schedule, and as the 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace showed, City are considerably more disjointed when rotating.
Ilkay Gundogan, Bernardo Silva, and Danilo are all excellent footballers but need more time adapting to English football - and it doesn't get more English than Burnley's aggressive approach. Gundogan and Silva struggled to move into the correct channels and probe space as Guardiola demands against Palace, leaving the visitors looking strangely flat. This is highly likely to happen again on Saturday, not least because City will be relying on Sergio Aguero - whose link-up play isn't good enough to compensate.
This match will be a real slog for the hosts, then. Scoring a goal against City might be beyond Burnley, but there is every chance City's slick passing will disappear at the Etihad with so many fringe players on the pitch.
Burnley to win is available at 19/1, and to draw is priced at 7/1
League Two leaders Luton Town are on an impressive run of form at the moment while Newcastle continue to look disjointed in attack, which is usually a good indication that a cup upset is possible. There is no denying Rafa Benitez's defence is very strong (they have conceded just five goals in their last six matches, thanks largely to the excellent partnership developing between Ciaran Clark and Jamaal Lascelles) but this might actually hinder the Magpies on Saturday.
Defensive sturdiness will mean very little when Newcastle dominate the ball, something they are not generally comfortable doing. Even in their recent 0-0 draw with Brighton, Benitez's side held just 45% possession; as Luton sit back and absorb pressure, Newcastle's players won't know what to do.
And Luton pose a serious threat on the counter. Playing in a 4-4-2 formation, their powerful strikers Danny Hylton and James Collins have netted 26 league goals between them so far. An upset is clearly on the cards.
Luton to win is available at 7/1, while the draw is priced at 4/1