Infogol's Weekend Tips: Back Crystal Palace to triumph at Watford

Wilfried Zaha has been a key player for Crystal Palace since returning from injury
Wilfried Zaha has been a key player for Crystal Palace since returning from injury
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Using expected goals (xG) data, Infogol's analyst picks out four bets across the Premier League, Championship and La Liga to help build your weekend multiples...

Cagey game expected at The Hawthorns

West Brom v Liverpool
Saturday 12:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event & Sky Sports Premier League

A meeting of two sides from opposite ends of the table. West Brom will be seeking to follow up on their deserved 1 - 0 victory against Manchester United (xG: MAN 0.81 - 0.96 WBA), a game in which neither side created much; WBA haven't scored two goals since a 3-2 loss to Southampton back in early-February.

While finding a West Brom player on the list of Premier League footballers with the most xG involves a lot of scrolling, you don't have to go far to find Mo Salah. He's second only to Harry Kane in terms of xG, but sits above him in the xGI list with 30. As ever, he's the obvious goal threat, though with the Champions League coming up next week, he could be rested.

That was the case when Liverpool played Everton in the Reds' most recent away match in the league, when the Toffees showed it is possible to nullify Liverpool's threat with a well-organised group of players who defend deep.
This fixture finished 1-0 to Liverpool last season, while West Brom gained a 0-0 draw at Anfield earlier this term. The Hawthorns could be the scene for one of the season's more cagey games, so don't expect plenty of goal mouth action - under 2.5 goals is the recommended bet.

Eagles to win again

Watford v Crystal Palace
Saturday 15:00

It's not often that a team's most disciplined player is also their top goalscorer. It's even rarer when it applies to both teams in the match! Watford's Abdaloulaye Doucoure and Crystal Palace's Luka Milivojevic share that dubious honour, and both could feasibly get on the scoresheet in a game where goals are expected.

Watford are looking to regain the winning thread here, having not managed to achieve victory in their last five - Tom Ince's late winner proved decisive in the 1 - 0 loss against Huddersfield Town last time out.

Watford have struggled to score on their travels (0 goals in their last six on the road), but have been better at Vicarage Road, netting in every home match since a 1-0 loss to Stoke way back in October.

Crystal Palace, meanwhile, will be seeking to follow up on their deserved 3 - 2 victory against bitter rivals Brighton and Hove Albion. The Eagles have been a much better team since the return of Wilfried Zaha, and have created a total of 10.79 xG in their last five games.

At a decent price, there is some value in the price of Crystal Palace and they are worth backing to win here at 31/20.

Tigers to return to winning ways

Bristol City v Hull City
Saturday 15:00

Though they have a strong home record, Bristol City come into this match on the back of three defeats in their last four, whilst even a 3-1 win against Birmingham was a fortuitous result (xG: BRI 1.71 - 2.17 BIR).

Lee Johnson's side will be seeking to bounce back from a 2 - 1 defeat against Middlesbrough last time, but have struggled to create chances of late, failing to record over 2 xG since a 4-0 win over Sheffield Wednesday in early-March.

Hull, on the other hand, were the better side against Wednesday last weekend (xG: HUL 1.24 - 0.54 SHE), but conspired to lose to a solitary Jordan Rhodes goal.

The Tigers have been unfortunate with results over the course of the campaign, but they come into this match in decent form and look good value to take advantage of a Bristol City side whose promotion challenge has stalled in the second half of the season.
Back Hull to win at 21/10

Celta to produce the goods at home

Celta Vigo v Valencia
Saturday 15:15

Celta Vigo have had no problem finding the net at the Balaídos this season, scoring 28 in 16 matches, including two against Barcelona last time. That game featured Iago Aspas' 20th goal of the campaign (18.13 xG), and his xGI total of 26.85 is bettered only by Lionel Messi, Luis Suárez and Cristiano Ronaldo.

Though Celta were unable to fully benefit from Barca having a man sent off in that 2 - 2 draw, it was another good result against a top team. Celta were the better side in a 2-1 draw with Real Madrid earlier in the season, a comment that also applies to a narrow 1-0 loss to Atletico back in October; Juan Carlos Unzue's side clearly raise their game against the bigger teams in front of their own fans.

After winning eight of their previous nine matches, Valencia come into this game on the back of successive 2-1 defeats, to Barcelona and Getafe. They were a little unfortunate on each occasion, but it suggests that some players may have taken their eye off the ball slightly with fourth spot all but assured. Back Celta Vigo to take all three points at 17/10.

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