Infogol's Weekend Euro Tips: Back Valencia to bring home 12/1 treble

Valencia manager Marcelino appeals for a decision
Marcelino can get Valencia pointing back in the right direction

After a long winter break in Germany, Infogol's analysts return with their best bets across the European action, using expected goals (xG) data to select a nicely priced treble...

"According to Infogol’s expected goals table, Valencia have been the third best team in La Liga this season, and as can be seen in the above graphic, they have been very unfortunate this season – especially in attack."

Goals to flow in top four clash

RB Leipzig vs Dortmund
Saturday, 17:30 GMT
Live on BT Sport and Betfair Live Video

German football returns after a long winter break, and it does so in style, with the big game this weekend seeing league leaders Dortmund travel to fourth place RB Leipzig, who are yet to lose at home this season.

Leipzig entered the winter break with a 3-2 win over Werder Bremen, a hugely entertaining game in which both teams created plenty of chances (xG: RBL 1.93 - 1.92 WER).

Their last seven Bundesliga games have seen four wins, all of which have come at home, and three defeats which have all been on their travels - so they are a team that enjoy their home comforts.

According to Infogol's expected goals table, they are deserving of a spot in the top four at this stage, and have had no problems in creating chances, averaging 1.92 xGF per game.

Interestingly, RB Leipzig have generated more xG than Dortmund this season (32.68 to 30.17), yet have scored 13 goals fewer, showing just how hot Dortmund have been in the first half of the season.

Lucien Favre's side have a six-point cushion over Bayern Munich heading into this game, but were beaten in their last away game before the break, going down 2-1 at Fortuna Düsseldorf.

As stated already, Dortmund have been very clinical with their finishing this season, scoring 44 from chances totalling 30.17 xGF, but they are a very fluid attacking team, and do consistently create good chances.

This is expected to be an open game of football, with chances and goals at both ends, so backing over 3.5 goals at a good price represents the best value.

Valencia to get back to winning ways

Celta Vigo vs Valencia
Saturday, 19:45 GMT
Live on Eleven Sports and Betfair Live Video

One of the big stories in La Liga this season has been the struggles of Valencia, a team that finished in the top four last season, and they travel to Celta Vigo on Saturday evening.

Celta themselves are finding life tough this campaign, and sit just a place above the relegation zone following a run of three straight defeats, the latest of which came against fellow strugglers Rayo Vallecano (xG: RAY 1.44 - 1.36 CEL).

They are in fact exactly where they deserve to be based on performances this season, having been very vulnerable defensively, conceding an average of 1.53 xGA per game.

As stated already, Valencia find themselves down in 11th place following another extremely unfortunate result last weekend against Real Valladolid, a game where they generated a lorry-load of good chances while conceding hardly any (xG: VAL 4.02 - 0.18 RVA).

valencia misfortune this season xG infogol.jpg

According to Infogol's expected goals table, Valencia have been the third best team in La Liga this season, and as can be seen in the above graphic, they have been very unfortunate this season - especially in attack.

If they continue performing the same way that they have been doing, the results will come for Marcelino's side, starting here, as the 6/4 on offer for them to win in Vigo represents great value.

Frosinone to draw a blank

Frosinone vs Atalanta
Sunday, 11:30 GMT
Live on Eleven Sports and Betfair Live Video

Frosinone find themselves in real trouble heading into the second half of the Serie A season, as they are six points from safety, and have won just one game all season long.

They were deservedly beaten by bottom side Chievo (xG: CHI 1.18 - 0.54 FRO), as they once again struggled to create good chances - they are averaging just 0.85 xGF per game this season, and have only scored in seven of their 19 Serie A matches.

Things are looking bleak for Frosinone.

Atalanta, on the other hand, are looking up after winning seven of their last 11 league games to move into eighth place and just four points off the top four.

A 6-2 thumping of Sassuolo a few weeks ago was yet another great attacking display, as they generated plenty of good scoring opportunities yet again (xG: SAS 1.17 - 3.11 ATA).

According to Infogol's expected goals table, Atalanta have been the fourth best team so far this season, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see them continuing to climb the table.

This match is expected to be an away win, but the value lies in backing Frosinone not to score, with both teams to score 'no' the selection.

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Infogol's 2018/19 Euro P+L

Staked: 51pts
Returned: 54.41pts
P+L: +3.41pts

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