Infogol's Weekend Euro Tips: Back Atalanta to bring home 6/1 treble

Zapata celebrates scoring against SPAL
Duván Zapata can help Atalanta to another win
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Infogol's analysts are back with their best bets across the European action, using expected goals (xG) data to select a nicely priced Sunday treble...

"According to Infogol’s expected goals table, Atalanta have the third best process in the league behind only Juventus and Napoli, creating chances at an impressive rate (1.86 xGF per game), so it is no surprise that they are favourites coming into this crucial game in the battle for the top four."

Celta to extend Levante's poor run

Celta Vigo vs Levante
Saturday, 12:00 GMT
Live on Eleven Sports and Betfair Live Video

Celta Vigo have had a tough time of late, losing five in a row before beating Sevilla a few weeks back, but were again on the end of defeat last weekend, albeit they did have to play more than 50 mins with 10-men.

Their underlying numbers suggest that they deserve to be sat just above the relegation zone, and although they haven't been great defensively, they have still been much better than Levante according to expected goals.

Paco López's Levante side have been extremely poor this season, and are very fortunate not to be in the relegation zone, having been the worst team in the La Liga according to expected goals.

They have conceded a huge average of 2.24 xGA per game, so give their opponents plenty of chances due to their gung-ho style of play, and that could well be the case again here.

Backing the home side to win in this relegation battle, taking advantage of Levante's defensive frailties, represents good value.

Goals galore at Rhein-Neckar

Hoffenheim vs Hannover
Saturday, 14:30 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video

Hoffenheim find themselves in a frustrating ninth position in the Bundesliga, having drawn eight of their last ten league games, though they can take positives from the fact that they are only three points behind fifth placed Frankfurt.

According to expected goals, Julian Nagelsmann's side have in fact been the fourth best team in the league, and have been extremely entertaining to watch, averaging a huge 2.09 xGF in attack, while conceding 1.64 xGA in defence.

Hannover won the basement battle with Nürnberg last weekend to register their first win in nine Bundesliga games and move off the bottom of the table, though according to xG, they have in fact been the worst team in the league.

Defensively they are all over the place, having conceded a huge 1.99 xGA per game in their last eight games, so don't expect them to keep this strong Hoffenheim attack at bay here.

In fact, it wouldn't be a surprise at all to see plenty of goals here, especially given how open both seems appear to be in defence, and so backing over 3.5 goals is the selection.

Atalanta to edge crucial match in top four battle

Atalanta vs AC Milan
Saturday, 19:30 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video

Atalanta are one of the form teams in Italy right now, having won four and drawn two of their last six matches, being the best team in all six matches according to expected goals.

They had to wait until the 79th minute to seal a deserved win over SPAL last weekend, with Duván Zapata making up for failing to score in their previous game against Cagliari, as he comes into this match having scored in nine of his last ten league games, netting 15 in that time.

According to Infogol's expected goals table, Atalanta have the third best process in the league behind only Juventus and Napoli, creating chances at an impressive rate (1.86 xGF per game), so it is no surprise that they are favourites coming into this crucial game in the battle for the top four.

AC Milan kept fourth spot last weekend by beating Cagliari 3-0, though that score line flattered them (xG: ACM 2.29 - 1.75 CAG), and they are now just one point above Atalanta following two draws prior to that game.

Gennaro Gattuso's side have been solid this season, conceding an average of 1.01 xGA per game, but that has seen their attacking process dip to an average of just 1.43 xGF per game, so they don't carry the same threat as their hosts going forward.

With that in mind, backing Atalanta to win, and leapfrog AC Milan in the process, represents good value at even money.

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Infogol's 2018/19 Euro P+L

Staked: 63pts
Returned: 62.71pts
P+L: -0.29pts

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